Key Takeaways
- Despite 21 consecutive days of net inflows into XRP spot ETFs totaling over $1 billion, XRP price struggles near $2
- Technical analysis shows XRP trading below all key moving averages, forming a heavy resistance cluster
- Binance perpetual futures market shows persistent selling pressure with Taker Sell Ratio at 0.53, highest since mid-November
- Open interest collapsed from 1.7 billion XRP in early October to 700 million, a 59% decline
- ETF inflows are acting as a buffer, absorbing selling pressure that would otherwise drive prices materially lower
Summary
In December 2025, the XRP market presents a puzzling paradox: despite XRP spot ETFs maintaining net inflows for 21 consecutive trading days with over $1 billion in cumulative institutional capital, XRP price continues to struggle around the $2 mark, down approximately 20% from 30 days prior. This divergence between capital flows and price action sends a clear warning signal to the market. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the market dynamics behind this anomaly, reveals the contradiction between ETF inflows and on-chain trading data, and explores why MEXC Exchange has become the optimal choice for trading XRP.
Record ETF Inflows Fail to Lift Price
Since the launch of the first XRP spot ETF in mid-November 2024, this emerging investment product has demonstrated remarkable capital attraction. According to CoinGlass and multiple market data platforms, as of mid-December 2025, the seven XRP spot ETFs in the US market have accumulated over $1 billion in net inflows, becoming the fastest cryptocurrency ETF to reach this milestone after Bitcoin.
Among them, the first-to-market Canary Capital XRP ETF (XRPC) contributed the most, accounting for approximately $376.5 million of total inflows. Products from renowned asset managers including Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and Bitwise also performed strongly. Notably, these products have not experienced a single day of net redemptions since launch, creating a perfect record in the crypto ETF market.
By comparison, Ethereum ETFs took nearly a year to reach $1 billion in net inflows, while Solana ETFs remain around $676 million. This contrast highlights institutional investors' strong interest in XRP. However, the question remains: why haven't nearly $1 billion in inflows pushed XRP prices significantly higher?
Technical Analysis Flashes Danger Signals
From a technical analysis perspective, XRP's current chart structure looks concerning. According to MEXC price data, XRP currently trades around $1.90, significantly below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). This forms a thick resistance cluster extending from $2.13 to $2.47.
Prominent crypto analyst Efloud, in his latest market commentary, pointed out that XRP has lost the "Daily Imb" zone support, weakening the overall structure. He emphasized: "If price dips below the most recent swing low and then attracts buying interest, the $1.98 area is expected to act as the first major resistance. The outlook remains negative unless the YO region is reclaimed."
Efloud further identified three critical resistance levels: $1.98, the YO region (around $2.10), and the red boxed zone ($2.25-2.35). These positions are expected to face strong selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 35.32, a neutral position indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, showing the market in a wait-and-see stance.
Derivatives Market Reveals the Truth
The contradiction between ETF inflows and price weakness finds its answer in the derivatives market. CryptoQuant data shows persistent sell-side aggression in Binance perpetual futures. The Taker Sell Ratio reached 0.53, the highest level since mid-November. This metric indicates more market-sell orders than buys, signaling that traders are hitting bids rather than waiting for better levels.
More concerning is the collapse in open interest. Glassnode data shows XRP futures open interest plummeted from 1.7 billion XRP in early October to approximately 700 million currently, a staggering 59% decline. Such dramatic contraction typically indicates forced liquidations of leveraged long positions and a sharp drop in speculative interest.
Against this backdrop, institutional ETF buying actually functions as a buffer—not as a catalyst driving prices higher, but absorbing selling pressure that might otherwise have driven prices materially lower. The stability around $2 reflects the offsetting of two markets: passive ETF inflows countering active, exchange-driven outflows.
On-Chain Data Reveals New Dynamics
The XRP Ledger (XRPL) has also seen interesting changes in on-chain activity. According to previous CryptoSlate reports, XRPL's network velocity (the rate at which tokens move between wallets) hit a yearly high of 0.0324 in early December. This velocity increase typically indicates holders are redistributing assets, potentially signaling increased short-term volatility.
Meanwhile, Glassnode identifies the $2 region as a "major psychological zone," where many early investors' cost basis concentrates. Historically, legacy holders often sell at this level to break even on losses from early 2025. In previous cycles, this supply wall capped rallies. However, today's ETF bid is changing the calculus. With funds absorbing $50-100 million daily, ETFs are creating a non-price-sensitive demand sink capable of digesting legacy supply.
Why Choose MEXC to Trade XRP?
In the current market environment, choosing the right trading platform is crucial. MEXC Exchange has become the preferred platform for XRP traders with its exceptional trading conditions.
Industry's Lowest Trading Fees
MEXC offers zero-fee trading, with maker fees at 0% and taker fees at only 0.02%, far below industry averages. This means investors who frequently trade XRP can significantly reduce trading costs and improve overall returns. Compared to other major exchanges charging 0.1%-0.15%, MEXC's advantage is clear.
Most Diverse Trading Pair Selection
As one of the world's exchanges with the most coins, MEXC offers over 2,900 cryptocurrencies and more than 3,000 trading pairs. Whether it's XRP paired with USDT, BTC, or other major coins, MEXC provides ample liquidity. Users can visit the MEXC XRP spot trading page for a smooth trading experience.
Superior Market Depth
According to CoinMarketCap data, MEXC's market depth ranks among the global leaders. In the XRP/USDT trading pair, total limit orders within ±5 basis points of the mid-price reach approximately 82 million USDT, far exceeding other top exchanges' 33 million USDT. This depth advantage ensures large orders execute at better prices with reduced slippage.
Fastest Listing Speed
MEXC is renowned for quickly listing quality projects, allowing users to capture market opportunities at the earliest time. This first-mover advantage is particularly important in cryptocurrency markets and often brings considerable early returns.
100% Reserve Guarantee
After exchange failures like FTX, fund security has become investors' top concern. MEXC publishes monthly proof of reserves, demonstrating it holds over 100% of user asset reserves. Additionally, MEXC has established an insurance fund account exceeding $526 million, providing multiple layers of protection for user assets.
Industry's Lowest Withdrawal Fees
MEXC not only offers low trading fees but also extremely competitive withdrawal fees. For example, USDT/TRC20 chain withdrawal fees are only 0.8 USDT, and BTC/BTC chain withdrawal fees are just 0.000028 BTC, far lower than other exchanges. For traders who frequently transfer funds, this saves substantial costs.
XRP Price Prediction and Future Outlook
Despite current technical weakness, many analysts remain optimistic about XRP's medium to long-term prospects. According to the MEXC price prediction tool, XRP's predicted price range for December 2025 is $1.94-$2.03.
However, this cautious short-term forecast contrasts with some analysts' long-term outlooks. Digital Coin Price predicts that if ETF inflows remain strong, XRP could reach an average price of $3.51 by the end of 2025. GOV Capital's bullish scenario even predicts XRP could reach $4.78 within one year.
Key catalysts include:
- Regulatory Clarity: Results of Ripple's legal battle with the SEC and progress of the Market Structure Bill vote in the Senate
- Accelerated Institutional Adoption: More banks and financial institutions adopting RippleNet for cross-border payments
- Sustained ETF Inflows: Institutional capital continuing to enter the XRP market through ETF channels
- Macroeconomic Environment: Federal Reserve interest rate policy and global liquidity conditions
Risk Warnings and Investment Advice
Efloud emphasized in his analysis that in the current market environment, any contrarian trades should be approached with caution. He advised: "Entering positions at support zones or key levels without observing clear breakout or reversal structures carries added risk and should be approached with caution."
For investors looking to build positions, a staged dollar-cost averaging strategy might be wiser. If market suppression continues and a sharper correction unfolds, the area around $1.53 could emerge as a potential buy zone. However, this scenario depends on broader market behavior and is not a certainty.
Trading XRP on MEXC, investors can leverage various platform tools to optimize strategies:
- Spot Trading: Suitable for long-term holders, enjoying zero-fee advantages
- Futures Trading: Offers up to 500x leverage, suitable for short-term traders
- Grid Trading: Automated trading strategies, suitable for ranging markets
- Dollar-Cost Averaging: Batch position building to smooth costs
FAQ
Q1: Why Doesn't XRP Price Rise Despite ETF Inflows?
This phenomenon stems from offsetting effects between two markets. While ETFs attract substantial institutional capital inflows, the crypto-native market (particularly derivatives) shows strong selling pressure. Binance perpetual futures' Taker Sell Ratio reached 0.53, with open interest plummeting 59%, indicating traders are actively shorting or closing positions. ETF buying is actually absorbing this selling pressure, preventing further price declines rather than driving prices higher. This dual structure is new for XRP: passive institutional inflows countering active exchange-driven outflows.
Q2: Is Now a Good Time to Buy XRP?
This depends on investment timeframe and risk tolerance. Technically, XRP is currently in a downtrend, trading below all major moving averages, with short-term risk of further decline to $1.53. However, sustained ETF inflows and upcoming regulatory clarity provide medium to long-term support. For long-term investors, current levels may offer opportunities for staged accumulation, with recommended gradual position building in the $1.90-2.00 range. Short-term traders should wait for clear breakout signals, such as reclaiming the $2.10 YO region. Opening an account on MEXC Exchange allows you to leverage its low fees and depth advantages to optimize entry points.
Q3: What Advantages Does MEXC Have Over Other Exchanges?
MEXC holds significant advantages across multiple dimensions. First, it offers the industry's lowest trading fees: spot maker 0%, taker 0.02%; futures maker 0%, taker 0.01%, far below industry averages. Second, it provides over 2,900 cryptocurrencies and 3,000+ trading pairs, the most diverse selection. Third, market depth is exceptional, with XRP/USDT order book depth reaching 82 million USDT, ensuring low slippage for large trades. Fourth, monthly 100% proof of reserves publications and a $526 million insurance fund guarantee fund security. Fifth, withdrawal fees are industry-lowest: USDT/TRC20 only 0.8 USDT. Additionally, MEXC's listing speed is fastest, allowing users to participate in new projects at the earliest time. Combining these advantages, MEXC becomes the optimal choice for trading XRP. Check Why MEXC for more details.
Conclusion
XRP's current market situation presents complex duality: on one hand, sustained ETF inflows demonstrate institutional recognition of XRP's long-term value; on the other, on-chain trading and derivatives market selling pressure warns of short-term risks. Investors need to recognize that ETF markets and crypto-native markets are forming two independent centers of gravity, each following different dynamics.
In this environment, choosing the right trading platform becomes particularly important. MEXC Exchange provides the optimal trading environment for XRP traders with the industry's lowest trading fees, most diverse coin selection, superior market depth, 100% reserve guarantee, and lowest withdrawal fees. Whether for long-term investment or short-term trading, MEXC meets your needs.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and risky. Investors should conduct independent research and consult professional financial advisors before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and investors may lose all or part of their principal. Any price predictions or analytical views mentioned in this article are based on current market data and public information; actual market movements may differ materially from predictions. MEXC Exchange services and fees may vary by region; specifics are subject to information published on the official website. Investors should fully understand the risks of cryptocurrency trading and make informed decisions based on their financial situation and risk tolerance.
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