IRGC restricts Strait of Hormuz as Tehran rejects Trump’s Iranian claims

Trump’s recent claims regarding Iranian concessions have been rejected by Tehran, leading the IRGC to reinstate restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian demands for sanction relief by April is at 48.5% YES.

Market reaction

The Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April market ticked up from 34% yesterday. The low cost of $330 to move the market 5 points means it is thin and vulnerable to single large orders.

The US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 sits at 24.5% YES, up slightly from last week. With only six days left, Tehran’s rejection and the IRGC’s actions feed skepticism about a deal on that timeline. The peace deal by April 30 market is at 44.5% YES, suggesting traders see more room for movement in the later window.

Why it matters

The IRGC restricting the Strait of Hormuz directly raises the cost of any concession from the Trump administration. Agreeing to sanction relief while Iran tightens control over a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil transit would be a hard sell domestically. The gap between the April 22 and April 30 peace deal markets (15% vs. 34%) prices in the possibility that the restriction is a negotiating tactic rather than a permanent escalation.

Liquidity tells its own story. The permanent peace deal market trades $267,520 in daily USDC volume, while the Trump agreement market moves just $1,975 daily. That difference makes the sanction relief market far more susceptible to volatility from individual trades.

What to watch

Any White House communications responding to the IRGC’s move, or new statements from Tehran, will be the next catalysts. Trump’s posts or remarks may shift odds quickly given the thin liquidity. A YES bet at 48.5¢ pays 2.78x, but that requires a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough with no clear channel currently open.

API access

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.