Bitcoin Treads Water as Weak Jobs Data Fails to Revive Risk Appetite

Crypto markets traded sideways on Tuesday and early Wednesday as softer U.S. labor data failed to catalyse fresh risk-taking, leaving Bitcoin and major altcoins locked in a narrow consolidation range.

Bitcoin hovered around $86,400, little changed on the session, while Ethereum remained capped below the $3,000 mark. BNB and Solana also posted muted moves, underscoring a broader lack of conviction across the market.

Total crypto market capitalization remained just under $3 trillion, signaling that the recent drawdown has shifted into consolidation rather than a clear rebound.

Macro signals lose impact

In macro markets, U.S. labour data showed signs of gradual cooling. November nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000, modestly above expectations, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, its highest level since late 2021. Revisions to prior months were mixed, with October payrolls revised sharply lower.

The data reinforced expectations that the U.S. economy is slowing without tipping into outright deterioration – enough to keep rate-cut expectations alive, but not enough to spark renewed appetite for risk assets.

Notably, crypto markets barely reacted. That lack of response highlights a shift in focus away from macro releases and toward internal market dynamics such as liquidity, leverage and positioning. Until economic data materially alters rate expectations or improves dollar liquidity conditions, crypto prices are likely to remain range-bound and reactive rather than trend-driven.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has previously pointed to labour market softening as a key justification for easing policy, though he has also cautioned that recent data may be distorted by technical and seasonal adjustment issues.

Onchain pressure persists

On-chain metrics continue to reflect stress beneath the surface. Bitcoin remains well below the Short-Term Holder cost basis, currently near $101,800, leaving recent buyers deeply underwater. Spot prices are also trading just below the Active Investor Mean around $87,900, a zone historically associated with rapid sentiment shifts on relatively small price moves.

The True Market Mean near $81,300 now stands out as the next major structural downside level should selling pressure re-emerge.

Derivatives positioning adds to the cautionary picture. Open interest has increased even as prices softened, while funding rates have ticked higher—evidence that traders are adding long exposure into weakness. Historically, this combination has preceded further downside when negative catalysts appear, particularly in thin liquidity environments.

Options markets echo the same tension. Demand for downside protection surged during the earlier slide into the low-$80,000 range before easing, but implied volatility remains elevated compared with the unusually calm conditions seen in recent months. The market is no longer pricing panic, but neither is it signalling confidence in a sustained rebound.

For now, crypto appears stuck in a holding pattern – stable, but vulnerable – awaiting either a meaningful shift in macro liquidity or a reset in positioning to define the next directional move.