Philippines’ consumer credit surge: A test the system is passing… for now

By Shunsuke Endo

THE rapid growth of consumer lending in the Philippines in recent years has raised some important questions: Does it signal rising risks to financial stability, or does it reflect healthy progress in financial inclusion? Consumer loans have expanded considerably faster than overall bank lending, growing by about 18% on average since mid-2022, compared with roughly 11% for total loans. Growth in consumer loans accelerated further to over 21% in the third quarter of 2025, with credit cards accounting for nearly 40% of this increase.

Against this backdrop, it is natural to ask whether the banking system remains sound, and whether consumers are piling up excessive debt, especially as credit card use becomes more widespread. According to an AMRO analysis, the consumer loan market in the Philippines appears, for now, to have largely succeeded in supporting financial inclusion while maintaining financial stability, as household debt stood at around 13% of GDP in 2025, low by regional standards. Building on this assessment, this article discusses the key conditions that will determine whether consumer lending can continue to support the Philippine economy in a stable and sustainable way.

Individuals can benefit from a deeper consumer loan market which enables them to use credit to pursue personal goals and improve their quality of life, thereby enhancing their financial well-being. Banks can diversify their borrower base through consumer lending, thereby achieving greater risk diversification within their loan portfolios.

From a broader economic perspective, consumer lending can help smooth consumption over time for households and bring people who previously had limited access to financial services into economic activity, improving overall welfare. If the market remains sustainable over the medium to long term, consumer loans can continue to support the resilience of the Philippines’ domestic demand.

For consumer lending to continue expanding in a way that preserves financial stability and support financial inclusion, three key areas of efforts are particularly important.

1. Sound risk management by banks. Banks themselves must act with discipline, supporting economic growth while preventing excessive lending and serving as guardrails for their sustainable business expansion. Philippine banks have so far shown solid performance. Key indicators of asset quality, such as non-performing loan ratios for consumer loans, hovering at around mid-5%, remain broadly healthy and capital adequacy has not shown major signs of stress, staying above 16% as of September 2025. Banks have been shifting toward business models that generate higher-yield income, while incurring more credit costs through provisioning for credit losses and bad debt write-offs, resulting in stronger profitability.

At the same time, the rapid growth in consumer lending has been mainly driven by credit card loans. As unsecured lending becomes more prominent, this form of lending underscores the need for banks to maintain prudent lending standards and effective risk management. On the positive side, the growing number of credit cards also reflects the spread of cashless payments and signals progress in financial inclusion for previously underserved groups.

As digital finance continues to develop and new financial products and platforms become more widespread, the risk management frameworks of banks will need to evolve in line with changing consumer behavior in the evolving financial sector landscape. Responsible and disciplined lending can help reduce sharp swings of credit conditions in business cycles, contributing to a more stable financial cycle overall.

2. Better borrowing decision-making by consumers. Financial literacy on the borrowing side matters. As financial services become more accessible, closing the gap between merely having access to them and being able to use them well becomes increasingly important. Stronger financial literacy can help consumers make better economic decisions. In times when banks take a more aggressive lending stance to improve profitability, consumers should rely on their financial knowledge to choose a borrowing option that matches their repayment capacity with life circumstances, thereby avoiding excessive debt.

Improved financial education can also complement consumer protection measures taken by regulators. At the same time, it can encourage banks to offer affordable financial products that better reflect consumers’ repaying ability. Through these interactions, overall financial well-being among consumers can be enhanced.

3. Proper oversight by authorities and stronger financial infrastructure. If banks and consumers are on the front line, regulators play the role of referee, overseeing the balance of the whole system. Authorities need to continue monitoring financial stability closely and respond in a timely manner when necessary. This includes both macro- and micro-prudential policies, as well as maintaining and strengthening institutional frameworks for consumer protection. Looking ahead, attention is also needed to the possibility that digital innovation and new financial products could shift risks beyond the traditional banking sector, including into short-term investment vehicles linked to buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) and e-commerce activity, stablecoins and crypto platforms, as well as fintech wallets.

Strengthening financial infrastructure is another key medium-term challenge. Wider use of credit cards can help new borrowers build credit histories, making it easier for them to access other financial products. To make the most of this progress, robust credit information systems are essential: they help borrowers avoid unfavorable terms, allow lenders to manage risks more carefully, and enable regulators to better understand current conditions. In addition, improving statistical systems that capture both formal and informal lending would help provide a clearer picture of household debt and repayment capacity.

In conclusion, the expansion of consumer lending in the Philippines reflects the economy’s strong underlying potential and is not, in itself, a problem. Whether it becomes a problem will depend on whether discipline by lenders, sound judgment by borrowers, and effective oversight by authorities continue to function. In this sense, the Philippines’ experience with surging consumer lending offers a useful case for other countries seeking to balance economic development with financial stability.

Shunsuke Endo is a senior economist at the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).