Wintermute: Bitcoin Holds Around $67K Ahead Of Hormuz Strait Deadline

Algorithmic trading firm Wintermute released its latest market report, noting that last week illustrated the full spectrum of outcomes the market is attempting to price. The S&P 500 posted a 3.4% gain, marking its best week since November, though the path to that recovery was highly volatile.

Tuesday saw significant optimism after Iran’s president indicated a willingness to end the conflict if Tehran received security guarantees. The S&P 500 jumped approximately 2.9%, achieving its strongest session since May, while Brent crude retreated from around $111 per barrel to $105.

However, this momentum was short-lived. Wednesday’s primetime address from former U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a continuation of military pressure, stating the war was “nearing completion” but promising further strikes on Iran over the next two to three weeks. WTI crude rose 11% on Thursday, closing above $111, Brent climbed above $112, and Asian markets experienced sharp declines, with the Nikkei falling 2.1% and the Kospi down 3.9%.

The following day brought additional military escalations, including the downing of an F-15 in Iran, a second U.S. aircraft crash near the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranian attacks on Gulf refineries. A virtual summit involving 40 countries failed to produce results. Trump subsequently threatened to target Iranian infrastructure if the Strait was not reopened by 8 p.m. ET, while also suggesting a potential deal could be reached by Monday. Axios reported discussions of a possible 45-day ceasefire framework.

Early Monday trading in Japan and South Korea responded positively to ceasefire reports, with Brent crude around $110. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.36%, up 40 basis points since the conflict began, and swaps indicate no probability of a rate change at the April 28–29 FOMC meeting. OPEC+’s planned 206,000 bpd supply increase for May is largely offset by continued disruptions in the Strait, currently operating at 95% below pre-war levels.

Crypto Markets Show Resilience Despite Macro Volatility

In digital assets, Bitcoin recorded a 2% gain for the week, lagging other major risk assets such as Ethereum (+4.2%) and the Nasdaq (+4.0%), while remaining resilient around $67,000. Institutional demand remains a key support factor, with ETFs and corporate treasury holdings contributing to net positive flows despite recent signs of institutional fatigue. Ethereum saw gains supported by staking yields, whereas Solana fell below $80 following a $285 million exploit of the Drift Protocol.

As of the latest trading, Bitcoin is priced at $68,422, down 1.3% in 24 hours, while Ethereum trades at $2,080, down 2.86%. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $2.34 trillion, a 1.55% decline over the last day, with a 24-hour trading volume of $83.94 billion, up 2.93%, according to CoinMarketCap.

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