Copper Price Forecast: Copper Eyes Cycle Reversal After $6.31 Peak and Elliott Wave Correction Signal

While the broader trend remains constructive, recent price action suggests the market is digesting gains following a sharp rally fueled by structural demand and tightening supply conditions.

At the time of writing, the copper price today is hovering around $6.01–$6.05 per pound, reflecting a pullback from the $6.31 peak recorded on January 29, 2026. That intraday surge marked a milestone for Copper prices, even as it fell just short of the inflation-adjusted highs seen in 2008.

Record Rally Meets Technical Resistance

The rally to $6.31 per pound was driven by a combination of speculative momentum and fundamental tailwinds. Demand from AI data centers, electric vehicles, and renewable energy projects intensified at the same time as supply disruptions emerged across key producing regions. On the London Metal Exchange, prices briefly climbed above $14,500 per metric ton, underscoring the global nature of the move.

The “Copper Cycles” chart suggests that copper’s price may be nearing the end of its current multi-month cycle and could change trend after confirming a retracement and key moving average support. Source: TradingView

However, the rapid ascent also introduced elevated volatility. Following the peak, copper futures experienced a sharp sell-off before stabilizing near the $6.00 level. This behavior has prompted analysts to reassess the Copper price trend, particularly through the lens of technical and cycle-based frameworks.

Cycle Models Flag a Potential Turning Point

According to RESM Cycles, a market model that tracks historical price behavior over long periods, February 4, 2026, was identified as a potential low point in copper’s daily trading cycle. The analyst noted that late-session volatility complicated the signal, adding that confirmation would depend on a recovery toward the 50% retracement of the recent high and daily closes above the 10-day simple moving average.

The copper price today marks the expected low of the daily copper cycle, although recent price volatility makes confirmation dependent on additional closes above the 10-day SMA and a 50% retracement. Source: RESM Cycles via X

“The cycle structure suggests a near-term base is forming, but price confirmation is still required,” the analyst wrote, emphasizing that momentum indicators have not fully reset.

Indeed, the Copper RSI analysis shows that the indicator remains elevated on higher timeframes, suggesting there could be room for additional consolidation before a clearer reversal signal emerges. This aligns with a cautious Copper technical outlook today, where short-term weakness does not necessarily undermine the broader bullish structure.

Elliott Wave Signals a Corrective Phase

From an Elliott Wave perspective, recent price behavior supports the view that copper has completed a five-wave bullish impulse and is now undergoing a three-wave corrective phase. This pattern typically reflects profit-taking after an extended advance rather than a decisive trend reversal.

Copper’s five-wave bullish rally appears complete, with the market now in a three-wave corrective phase indicating normal consolidation. Source: TradingView

Copper’s retreat from the highs has been marked by slower momentum, wider intraday swings, and intermittent rebounds—hallmarks of a corrective A-B-C structure. As long as prices remain above key medium-term supports, analysts view this phase as a Copper price consolidation within a larger uptrend.

Technically, Copper support and resistance levels are becoming more defined. On the downside, the $5.90–$6.00 zone represents an important near-term support band. A sustained break below that area could increase Copper price correction risk, opening the door to deeper retracement. On the upside, a recovery above $6.10 would strengthen the case for renewed upside momentum.

Copper and the Energy Transition

Beyond short-term technicals, the Copper market outlook remains closely tied to long-term structural themes. Copper plays a central role in electrification, renewable energy infrastructure, and grid expansion, making it a key beneficiary of the global energy transition. Rising investment in EV production, charging networks, and data centers continues to underpin the Copper demand outlook.

Copper is entering a supercycle as surging industrialization, global electrification, and reconstruction efforts collide with decades of underinvestment in supply. Source: Lukas Ekwueme via X

At the same time, Copper supply constraints persist. Years of underinvestment in new mining capacity, combined with geopolitical risks in several producing countries, have tightened the supply pipeline. This imbalance has reinforced copper’s appeal as a strategic industrial asset and, increasingly, as a partial hedge against inflation and macro uncertainty.

Short-Term Outlook and Price Scenarios

In the near term, analysts describe the outlook as moderately bullish, with consolidation likely before the next breakout attempt. The base-case scenario points to a trading range between $12,800 and $13,600 per metric ton, equivalent to roughly $5.80–$6.15 per pound. A sustained move above the upper boundary would bring the $14,000 level back into focus.

Copper futures are forming a bullish flag pattern, suggesting a potential breakout to new highs above $14,500 per ton if $13,000 support holds. Source: F I S H E R via X

Conversely, a loss of support near $12,800 could trigger a deeper pullback toward the $12,200–$12,400 zone. These levels will be closely watched as part of ongoing Copper price analysis and Copper futures outlook assessments.

Final Thoughts

Taken together, the current setup suggests that while a major bullish phase may have already played out, the longer-term narrative remains intact. The ongoing correction appears technical in nature, reflecting market digestion rather than a fundamental shift in supply-demand dynamics.

For investors assessing the Copper price forecast 2026, the key question is not whether copper’s long-term role is diminishing, but how quickly the market can reset before the next advance. As long as prices hold above critical support zones, the broader Copper price outlook continues to favor resilience over reversal.