Predicting "When Will Trump End the War?" Here are Five Key Points

Author: Wall Street News

The war with Iran has become the strongest geopolitical shock to the global energy market since the Gulf War in 1990.

Since the start of the Iran war on February 26, 2026, Brent crude oil has surged 44% in just 25 days, U.S. gasoline wholesale price (Rbob) has risen 48%, U.S. diesel prices have risen 51%, and European diesel prices have risen 58%.

A recent research report from Barclays Capital warns that the timing of the end of the war will directly determine whether crude oil prices return to the baseline scenario of $85 per barrel or break through $110 per barrel. For investors, five key catalysts—the progress of military objectives, congressional funding disputes, US military casualty figures, gasoline retail prices, and Trump's personal judgment—are currently the key variables in energy market pricing.

Barclays believes that oil price trends will diverge at three key points: if the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal navigation in early April, Barclays maintains its baseline forecast of an average Brent crude price of $85 per barrel in 2026; if delayed until the end of April, the average price may be repriced at around $98 per barrel; and if delayed until the end of May, the average price could reach $111 per barrel. Each day of delay will cause the accumulated inventory gap to snowball, pushing up the price center.

Five key factors: the core variables that determine the end of a war

Barclays public policy analyst Michael McLean has identified five potential catalysts that could end the war with Iran:

Key Point 1: Achievement of Military Objectives

According to CCTV News, the United States previously outlined three objectives for Iran: to destroy Iran's ballistic missile and drone capabilities; to strike the Iranian navy to maintain passage through the Strait of Hormuz; and to destroy Iran's military and industrial base, rendering it incapable of launching attacks for many years. It is noteworthy that regime change or Iran's nuclear program are not among these objectives.

President Trump initially estimated the operation would last "four to five weeks." The war is now in its third week, and according to the White House, it may be halfway through.

However, judging from the number of targets struck, the US Central Command has not yet shown a clear turning point in its operations, and additional forces remain deployed. While the frequency of Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks on the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain has decreased significantly, it has not completely ceased, indicating that Iran still retains a certain offensive capability. Barclays believes that until relevant indicators further decrease, it cannot be determined whether the military objectives have been achieved.

Key Point Two: Congressional Checks and Balances – The War Powers Act Sets a Hard Deadline of May 31

The War Powers Act stipulates that the president must obtain congressional authorization (AUMF) within 60 days of deploying armed forces and submitting a report to Congress. The president can extend this period by an additional 30 days, and military action must be forcibly terminated after the 90-day period expires. Trump submitted his report on March 2, thus the hard 90-day deadline is calculated to be May 31.

The AUMF needs 60 votes to pass in the Senate, while Republicans currently hold only 53 seats. Democrats have already made their stance clear by passing two resolutions against it—making the AUMF highly unlikely to pass, given that May 31st is the institutional hard boundary for the end of the war.

The economic costs of the war are also accumulating rapidly: the first week cost approximately $11 to $12 billion, and the current daily operating costs have dropped to approximately $500 million, with total expenditures estimated at approximately $21 billion to date.

In comparison, the Iraq War cost $815 billion in nominal terms over 13 years; total defense spending available in fiscal year 2026 is estimated at $839 billion. Furthermore, the "One Big Beautiful Bill" has already allocated $150 billion to the Department of Defense, providing a temporary financial buffer.

Key Point Three: Rising U.S. military casualties will further erode public support.

Barclays stated that the war's domestic support in the United States is fragile and exhibits significant partisan polarization.

As of March 22, RealClearPolitics polls showed a 41% approval rating and a 49% disapproval rating. President Trump's overall approval rating dropped slightly from 43% to 42%, marking his lowest point in his second term (his lowest point in his first term was 37% in December 2017).

Thirteen U.S. soldiers have been killed so far.

Historical experience shows that wars often produce a "rally-around-the-flag effect," giving presidents a short-term boost in approval ratings, but Trump did not experience this effect. The general rule is that the longer the war lasts, the higher the casualties, and the more pessimistic the public is about the prospects of victory, the stronger the anti-war sentiment becomes.

Key Point Four: Gasoline Prices Hit a "Political Red Line"—$5/Gallant is the Key Threshold

In July 2022, the peak national gasoline price during Biden's presidency was $5.01 per gallon.

For the Republican Party, not surpassing this "Biden peak" is a psychological political line, corresponding to a WTI oil price of approximately $120 per barrel, which is more than 20% higher than the current oil price.

Currently, Republican officials remain relatively optimistic, believing that even if oil prices face short-term pressure, there is enough time for them to fall back before Labor Day (before investors truly begin focusing on the midterm elections) as the war ends. The administration has also taken a series of measures to try to alleviate oil price pressure, including releasing strategic reserves and exempting related sanctions.

Key Point Five: Trump's "Victory Declaration" and Proactive Shift

Barclays believes that regardless of the actual progress on the battlefield, there remains a possibility that Trump might declare victory and end the war at some point. Previously, when asked how he would determine when the war would end, Trump's answer was intriguing—"when I feel it in my bones."

Barclays explicitly points out that the timing of this catalyst is almost entirely unpredictable.

In communications with clients, a common analogy is that Trump's policy shift after "Liberation Day" (the announcement of tariffs on April 2, 2025) has created a conditioned reflex among investors, who tend to believe that a market crash could drive Trump to change course.

Barclays, however, believes the current market reaction is not "panicked" enough: the S&P 500 fell about 12% after Liberation Day, but has only fallen about 5% since the start of the war; the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 60 basis points after Liberation Day, but has only risen about 40 basis points this time; investment-grade credit spreads widened by 26 basis points after Liberation Day, but have only widened by 9 basis points at their peak this time. More importantly, suspending a tariff executive order is far easier than ending a real war.

The upside risk for oil prices is significantly skewed.

Barclays' core assessment is that the current rise in oil prices is not a speculative bubble, but a reflection of a real supply-demand imbalance.

Before the war, Brent crude oil was undervalued by about 19% relative to OECD inventory levels and by about 15% relative to the substitution cost model; net speculative long positions in Brent and WTI were at the second percentile of historical lows since 2014 by the end of 2025.

The dynamic evolution of five key catalysts—military target progress, congressional funding disputes, U.S. military casualty figures, gasoline retail prices, and Trump's personal judgment—will be the most important high-frequency tracking dimensions for judging the future direction of the energy market. Barclays explicitly points out that, given the uncertainty, the risk to the 2026 Brent crude oil forecast of $85/barrel is skewed to the upside.