Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin May Face Pressure as Markets Enter a No-Trade Zone

Arthur Hayes warns Bitcoin may face pressure as AI risks and Middle East tensions push markets into a no-trade zone.

Arthur Hayes said financial markets have entered a “no-trade zone” as uncertainty rises across global systems.

He pointed to pressure from artificial intelligence and geopolitical risks. He added that Bitcoin may face short-term weakness alongside other risk assets.

AI and Geopolitics Drive Market Uncertainty

In a new article, Arthur Hayes said two major factors are shaping current market conditions.

He explained that AI-driven changes and geopolitical tensions are creating a difficult trading environment. As a result, activity across crypto markets has slowed.

He said advanced AI systems may replace many knowledge-based jobs. This shift could reduce income levels and weaken consumer demand.

He warned that such changes may place pressure on the financial system. At the same time, tensions in the Middle East remain a concern.

Hayes referred to risks involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. He also mentioned uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and global energy supply.

He said, “I don’t know shit about war fighting,” while noting he follows public data and narratives. He added that these combined risks have created a pause in trading decisions.

Bitcoin Faces Pressure Across Different Scenarios

Hayes said Bitcoin may come under pressure in the near term. He explained that risk assets often react to macroeconomic stress.

Therefore, Bitcoin could move alongside stocks and bonds during uncertainty.

He outlined several possible scenarios tied to global events. In one case, conflict eases but AI continues to affect jobs.

This could reduce spending and force central banks to support the economy.

In another case, Iran maintains control over key shipping routes. This could affect oil trade and currency flows. Hayes said such shifts may trigger selling across global markets.

A third scenario involves further escalation in conflict and supply disruption.

He said central banks may respond with monetary expansion. This could later support fixed-supply assets like Bitcoin.

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Hayes Maintains Cautious Investment Strategy

Hayes said he remains cautious despite long-term optimism for Bitcoin. He noted that he is not increasing exposure at current levels.

Instead, he is waiting for clearer liquidity signals from central banks.

Meanwhile, Hayes said he prefers assets like gold and the HYPE token. He explained that gold benefits from rising commodity prices and fiscal spending.

He also noted growing interest in alternative trading platforms.

He added that Hyperliquid’s upcoming update may affect its market position. He said the platform could compete with existing prediction markets.

For now, he continues to adjust exposure slowly while monitoring market conditions.

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