Bitcoin Wavers, but Institutional Interest Returns: December Market Outlook

Bitcoin started December on the back foot, showing that the bears are still pressing their advantage. The failure to attract strong dip buying has kept traders cautious, with some analysts pointing toward deeper support zones. Veteran trader Peter Brandt noted that BTC’s chart shows support stretching from sub-$70,000 into the mid-$40,000 region. Network economist Timothy Peterson echoed a similar concern, saying BTC’s current price action resembles the second half of 2022 — a period that did not resolve into a strong rally until the following quarter. If that pattern repeats, BTC may need more time before its next major upside move. Still, not all signals lean bearish. Crypto ETPs ended their four-week outflow streak, attracting $1.07 billion in inflows last week, according to CoinShares. That shows real demand stepping in at lower levels.

Institutional sentiment also appears to be shifting. Vanguard — the world’s second-largest asset manager — will now allow clients to trade crypto ETFs and mutual funds on its platform, reversing its previous anti-crypto stance. While Vanguard still refuses to offer memecoin products or create its own ETFs, opening access to regulated crypto funds is a major milestone for mainstream adoption.

In the US, political pressure over the treatment of crypto companies continues. Republican lawmakers released a final report accusing the previous administration of cutting off banking access to digital asset firms through “informal guidance” and enforcement tactics — what many call “Operation Choke Point 2.0.” Lawmakers argued that passing the CLARITY Act and broader digital asset legislation is essential to prevent regulators from shutting out crypto innovation and to establish clear market structure rules.

Strategy — the largest public Bitcoin holder — is strengthening its foundation by creating a $1.44 billion US dollar reserve to cover dividends and debt payments. Alongside this, the firm added 130 BTC, bringing its holdings to a symbolic 650,000 BTC, worth over $48 billion. By maintaining a robust cash reserve, the company aims to improve the long-term attractiveness of its equity and preferred shares.

In Asia, Japan continues to modernize its crypto regulatory landscape. The government is backing a major overhaul of crypto taxation, moving from a complex tiered system with rates up to 55% to a flat 20% tax on crypto gains. This reform, expected to be legislated in early 2026, would align crypto taxation with stocks and investment funds, making Japan far more competitive for investors and startups.

Market  Outlook

BTC continues to struggle in early December, with sentiment leaning cautious. A retest of deeper support remains possible unless BTC reclaims $100,000 with conviction. ETH is holding relatively steady but needs to break above $3,350 to shift momentum. XRP remains range-bound, with traders watching for a breakout from its descending structure. Overall, the market shows early signs of stabilizing, but confirmation will depend heavily on renewed inflows, macro clarity, and BTC’s ability to reclaim key moving averages.

Bitcoin turned lower on Monday after failing multiple times to break above the 20-day EMA at $91,999, showing that sellers remain firmly in control. If BTC closes below $84,000, the BTC/USDT pair could slide quickly toward $80,600. This zone between $80,600 and $73,777 is expected to attract aggressive buying, as it marks a major support cluster. On the upside, the bulls must reclaim the 20-day EMA to show any real strength. A sustained move above that level could open the door for a push toward the 50-day SMA near $101,438. However, if $73,777 fails to hold, the sell-off could intensify and BTC risks a deeper correction toward the $54,000 zone.

Ether also rejected the 20-day EMA at $3,052 on Sunday, confirming that traders continue to sell into relief rallies. Bears will now try to drive ETH below $2,623 to restart the downtrend. If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair could fall to $2,400 and later to $2,111. Bulls need to flip the 20-day EMA into support to regain momentum; a break above it could send ETH back toward the $3,350 breakdown level, a key line the bears are likely to defend.

XRP remains under pressure, turning down from the 20-day EMA at $2.18, which signals weakened bullish interest. The XRP/USDT pair may now drop toward the support line of its descending channel, where buyers are likely to step in. A strong bounce and a breakout above the 20-day EMA would suggest the pair may continue grinding inside the channel. But a close below the support line would expose the $1.61 level. If that floor breaks, XRP could be headed toward $1.25.

BTC remains vulnerable below the 20-day EMA, with support stacked between $80K–$74K. A close above $92K would be the first sign of momentum shifting back to the bulls. ETH needs to hold $2,623 to avoid a deeper slide; the $3,050–$3,350 zone remains heavy resistance until reclaimed. XRP is trading near the lower end of its channel, and traders should watch for either a bounce toward $2.18 or a clean breakdown toward $1.61. Overall, the market remains in a defensive posture, with recovery attempts likely to face stiff selling until key moving averages are reclaimed.

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