Markets Share Share this article Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail Bitcoin Volatility Is Still Compre Markets Share Share this article Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail Bitcoin Volatility Is Still Compre

Bitcoin Volatility Is Still Compressing, Dimming Year-End Rally Outlook

2025/12/10 21:05
4 min read
Share
Share this article
Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail

Bitcoin Volatility Is Still Compressing, Dimming Year-End Rally Outlook

Bitcoin's volatility indices are declining, just like the S&P 500's.

By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback
Dec 10, 2025, 1:05 p.m.
BVIV. (TradingView)

What to know:

  • Bitcoin's volatility indices are declining, just like the S&P 500's.
  • The drop in bitcoin's implied volatility weakens the case for a year-end rally.
  • Matrixport notes that the volatility compression suggests low odds of a significant price breakout.

In this article

FILFIL$1.4865◢0.43%

Bitcoin's BTC$92,049.24 volatility indexes are still declining, mirroring those of the S&P 500, bringing a price stability that weakens the case for a year-end rally, according to one analyst.

BTC's annualized 30-day implied volatility, as measured by Volmex's BVIV index, has dropped to 49%, nearly reversing the spike to 65% from 46% over the 10 days through Nov. 21, according to TradingView data.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
Sign me up

Implied volatility is an options-based measure that represents the market's outlook for price swings over a specific period. The drop from 65% to 49% means expected price turbulence over the 30 days has declined from as much as 5 percentage points to 14%.

The VIX index, which represents the 30-day implied volatility in the S&P 500, has also dropped, reaching 17% from 28% since Nov. 20.

According to Matrixport, the so-called volatility compression suggests low odds of a year-end rally.

"Implied volatility continues to compress, and with it, the probability of a meaningful upside breakout into year-end," the firm said in a market update Wednesday. "Today's FOMC meeting represents the final major catalyst, but once it passes, volatility is likely to drift lower into the year-end."

Matrixport's view aligns with bitcoin's historical positive price-volatility correlation, though this relationship has gradually shifted toward the negative since November 2024.

On Wall Street, implied volatility compression is typically associated with a bullish reset in the market sentiment.

Bitcoin NewsMarketsVolatility

More For You

Protocol Research: GoPlus Security

Commissioned byGoPlus

What to know:

  • As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
  • GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
  • Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
View Full Report

More For You

Polkadot Rises 4% as Crypto Markets Stabilize

The token has support at the $2.19 level and resistance at $2.39.

What to know:

  • DOT climbed from $2.13 to $2.21 in the last 24 hours.
  • An exceptional volume surge of 15.89M tokens drove a breakout attempt before momentum faded.
  • The token consolidated around the $2.19-$2.20 zone with resistance capping gains near $2.39.
Read full story
Latest Crypto News

Helium Expands to Brazil With Mambo WiFi in DePIN Breakthrough

Polkadot Rises 4% as Crypto Markets Stabilize

Filecoin Trades Little Changed, Underperforms Wider Crypto Markets

Superstate Rolls Out Direct Stock Issuance for Public Companies on Ethereum, Solana

TenX Protocols to Start Trading on TSX Venture Exchange After Raising $24M in 2025

Blockstream Connects Lightning and Liquid for Faster, Private Bitcoin Payments

Top Stories

Crypto Markets Today: Fed Rate-Cut Hopes Lift BTC, ETH as Traders Brace for Volatility

IMF Flags Stablecoins as Source of Risk to Emerging Markets, Experts Say We Aren't There Yet

Binance Co-CEO Yi He’s WeChat Account Hacked to Push Memecoin MUBARA

Strive Starts $500M Preferred Stock "At-The-Money" Program for Bitcoin Purchases

Ether, Silver in the Spotlight: Crypto Daybook Americas

Metaplanet Stock Jumps 12% as mNAV Climbs to 1.17, Highest Level Since Crypto Crisis

Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact [email protected] for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.

You May Also Like

Pi Network Tech Upgrade Unlocks Mainnet Migration for 2.5 Million Users and Introduces Palm Print Security

Pi Network Tech Upgrade Unlocks Mainnet Migration for 2.5 Million Users and Introduces Palm Print Security

Pi Network has announced a major technological breakthrough that marks a new chapter in its evolution. According to information shared by Twitter user @strong3
Share
Hokanews2026/02/07 12:28
PayPal P2P, Google AI Payments, Miner Pivot — Crypto Biz

PayPal P2P, Google AI Payments, Miner Pivot — Crypto Biz

The post PayPal P2P, Google AI Payments, Miner Pivot — Crypto Biz appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Crypto’s center of gravity is shifting from speculation to services. PayPal is opening the door to peer-to-peer (P2P) cryptocurrency transfers, building on its growing presence in digital assets. Its stablecoin, PYUSD, has already surpassed $1 billion in market capitalization. Google is piloting a payment protocol designed for AI agents, with built-in support for stablecoins — highlighting the role dollar-pegged crypto could play in the emerging web economy. Meanwhile, Bitcoin miners face tighter margins from rising costs, higher difficulty levels and growing competition. Yet several companies are thriving by pivoting into data-center and AI infrastructure, sending their share prices sharply higher in recent weeks. This week’s Crypto Biz covers PayPal’s P2P rollout, the shifting economics of Bitcoin mining, Google’s open-source AI payment initiative and Bitwise’s bid for a new exchange-traded fund (ETF) focused on stablecoins and tokenization. PayPal rolls out P2P crypto transfers with new “links” feature PayPal is expanding its peer-to-peer offerings with a new feature that allows US users to send and receive cryptocurrencies directly within PayPal and Venmo, without relying on external exchanges. The service, called PayPal links, generates one-time links in the app that can be shared via text, email or chat. The feature will extend to Venmo, enabling direct transfers of cryptocurrencies and PayPal’s stablecoin, PYUSD, between users. For US customers, PayPal said that personal friends-and-family crypto transfers will not trigger 1099-K tax reporting, though other types of crypto transactions may still be taxable The rollout is part of PayPal World, the company’s interoperability framework aimed at connecting wallets and payment systems across its ecosystem. PayPal’s stablecoin, PYUSD, has experienced significant growth since launch, reaching a market cap of roughly $1.3 billion. Source: CoinMarketCap Bitcoin miners outperform BTC Shares of several major Bitcoin mining companies have surged over the past month, even as Bitcoin’s (BTC) price…
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/20 22:22
Federal Reserve Cuts Rates: What Does This Mean for Crypto?

Federal Reserve Cuts Rates: What Does This Mean for Crypto?

TLDR: The Federal Reserve lowered rates by 25 bps, starting its first easing cycle of 2025. Lower rates tend to weaken the dollar, often driving capital into risk assets like crypto. Analysts say cheaper liquidity can fuel Bitcoin and altcoin demand as yields fall. Investors are watching price reactions closely as markets price in more [...] The post Federal Reserve Cuts Rates: What Does This Mean for Crypto? appeared first on Blockonomi.
Share
Blockonomi2025/09/18 14:10