Bitcoin May Struggle to Break $94K Resistance Amid Low Stablecoin Inflows

• Bitcoin struggles at $94K resistance: The cryptocurrency has failed to surpass this local high twice recently, maintaining a bearish higher timeframe trend despite a three-week uptick from $84,000.

• Stablecoin exchange inflows have dropped sharply, limiting liquidity and demand needed for sustained price gains.

• Short-term holders are underwater with losses peaking in 2025, leading to increased profit-taking on every price rebound, as shown by on-chain data from analytics platforms.

Explore Bitcoin’s ongoing recovery challenges amid declining stablecoin inflows and short-term holder losses. Discover key on-chain metrics signaling bearish pressures—stay informed on BTC’s path forward. (152 characters)

What Is Hindering Bitcoin’s Price Recovery Above $94,000?

Bitcoin’s price recovery is being impeded by insufficient liquidity inflows and persistent losses among short-term holders, preventing a decisive break above the $94,000 resistance. In the last eight days, BTC has approached this level twice but retreated both times, underscoring a bearish trend on higher timeframes. Despite a rebound from $84,000 over the past three weeks, on-chain indicators reveal underlying weaknesses that could prolong this stagnation.

How Are Declining Stablecoin Inflows Impacting Bitcoin Demand?

Stablecoin inflows to cryptocurrency exchanges have plummeted by 50% since August, according to data from on-chain analytics. This decline represents a critical reduction in incoming liquidity, which analysts like Darkfost on X have identified as the primary barrier to Bitcoin’s upward momentum. Without fresh capital from stablecoins—often used as a bridge for fiat-to-crypto conversions—demand for BTC remains subdued, making it difficult for prices to sustain rallies.

Source: Darkfost on X

Expert insights from CryptoQuant highlight that this trend correlates with broader market caution. In previous cycles, robust stablecoin inflows preceded major BTC surges, providing the fuel for institutional and retail buying. Currently, the 50% drop not only stifles immediate demand but also amplifies volatility, as traders hesitate to commit without visible support. For instance, during the mid-October bounce, stablecoin activity was noticeably higher, contributing to temporary optimism. Today, however, the absence of such inflows suggests investors are sidelined, awaiting clearer signals from macroeconomic factors or regulatory developments.

Furthermore, this liquidity crunch extends beyond Bitcoin to the entire crypto ecosystem. Stablecoins like USDT and USDC serve as the primary on-ramps for trading pairs, and their reduced presence means fewer opportunities for leveraged positions that could drive BTC higher. Data from exchange flow trackers shows that daily stablecoin deposits have averaged 30% below seasonal norms, reinforcing the narrative of diminished buying pressure. As Darkfost noted in his analysis, “The lack of incoming liquidity is the biggest issue holding BTC back,” emphasizing how this metric directly ties to price stagnation.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why Are Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Experiencing Deep Losses in 2025?

Short-term Bitcoin holders, defined as those acquiring BTC within the last 155 days, are facing their most severe loss regime of 2025 due to prolonged price consolidation below acquisition costs. On-chain metrics indicate that over 60% of this cohort remains underwater, with average losses exceeding 15% per holding. This situation stems from the failure to breach key resistance levels like $94,000, prompting sales during minor rebounds to recoup capital. (48 words)

What Does the Sell-the-Bounce Behavior Mean for Bitcoin’s Market Trend?

The sell-the-bounce behavior among short-term holders signals a fearful market sentiment where each price uptick is viewed as an exit opportunity rather than a buying signal. This pattern, evident since late November, contributes to capped recoveries and reinforces the bearish higher timeframe trend for Bitcoin. For voice search users, it essentially means traders are prioritizing loss minimization over holding for long-term gains, potentially delaying a full bullish reversal until new liquidity enters the market.

Source: CryptoQuant Insights

A deeper look at short-term holder (STH) dynamics reveals a cohort under considerable strain. CryptoQuant Insights reports that STHs have entered their deepest loss phase this year, with realized losses spiking during recent bounces. This underwater status—where holdings are valued below purchase prices—creates a psychological barrier, encouraging disposals at the first sign of strength. Historical patterns from 2022 and early 2024 show similar behaviors preceding prolonged sideways action, but 2025’s metrics suggest a more entrenched caution due to elevated entry costs post the previous bull run.

Supporting data from exchange inflows underscores this: The 24-hour volume of STH BTC sent to platforms has surged during upticks, but predominantly at a loss. In contrast, mid-October’s rally saw profit-taking dominate, reflecting confidence in further appreciation. Since November 27, however, spikes in loss realizations have dominated, aligning with a fear index above 50 on major sentiment trackers. As one CryptoQuant analyst stated, “Underwater holders are selling the bounce, combining with low demand to pose tough obstacles for bulls.” This dual pressure from STH behavior and liquidity shortages could extend Bitcoin’s current stabilization phase.

While some argue this represents market maturation rather than outright bearishness—pointing to reduced volatility compared to past cycles—the data leans toward caution. Long-term holders, conversely, show minimal selling, providing a floor around $80,000. Yet, without STH capitulation or renewed inflows, breaking $94,000 remains elusive. Monitoring exchange reserves and stablecoin mints will be key, as shifts here often precede trend reversals.

Source: CryptoQuant

Key Takeaways

• Reduced Stablecoin Inflows: A 50% drop since August limits liquidity, curbing Bitcoin’s ability to break resistance and sustain recoveries.
• STH Loss Regime: Short-term holders face peak 2025 losses, driving sell-the-bounce activity that undermines bullish momentum.
• Monitor On-Chain Signals: Track exchange flows and holder metrics for early signs of reversal; increased demand could signal a shift.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s price recovery challenges persist amid declining stablecoin inflows and short-term holder losses, keeping the $94,000 barrier intact and the higher timeframe bearish. While on-chain data from sources like CryptoQuant paints a picture of caution, it also highlights potential stabilization rather than a deep downturn. As market participants await fresh liquidity, staying attuned to these metrics will be essential—consider diversifying strategies to navigate ongoing volatility.