Ethereum Price Analysis: Can ETH Challenge $3.4K Again or Is a Drop Below $3K Looming?

ETH had a short-term push above the trendline and tested the $3,400 resistance, but the bounce quickly faded. The market is showing signs of exhaustion again, and bulls are struggling to maintain control. Unless stronger momentum steps in, Ethereum may be at risk of rolling back into the range.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

After breaking above the descending trendline, ETH tapped into the $3,400–$3,500 resistance zone but failed to sustain higher prices. The asset is still trading below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, both located above the $3,500 mark, and despite flipping the trendline, the structure remains fragile.

The recent candle shows rejection from the same zone that capped the price in early November, making this a clear short-term barrier. If buyers lose grip, the next potential support is around the $2,900 bullish order block, which coincides with the broken trendline at the moment.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, it is evident that the breakout above the bearish trendline was clean, but the price faced immediate resistance near $3,400 and dropped back below $3,300.

The previous resistance has now turned into a minor support zone around $3,100–$3,200. However, the rejection wick from the recent top shows a lack of follow-through. If this support fails, the price could revisit the $2,950–$2,900 range. Structure remains vulnerable, and RSI is cooling off after overbought conditions, suggesting weakening momentum.

Sentiment Analysis

Open Interest

Open Interest is gradually rising again and sits near $19.4B, while the price has bounced back to around $3.2K. The last time this combo was seen, rising OI with flat or correcting price, it preceded a sharp move.

This could go either way, but historically, when OI climbs faster than price, it signals aggressive speculative positioning, often followed by liquidations. Therefore, traders should stay cautious here as the risk of a flush is not off the table, especially if spot market demand doesn’t follow.

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