Palay estimates point to Q4 output drop; corn production expected to improve

PRODUCTION of palay (unmilled rice) in the fourth quarter could decline 2.9% year on year, with corn output estimated to increase 2.7% year on year, according to estimates based on the standing crop, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said.

As of Nov. 1, the PSA estimated fourth-quarter palay output of 7.02 million metric tons (MMT). The projection, if borne out, would come in below the 7.15-MMT forecast issued by the PSA in October.

The PSA said harvest area is likely to contract 3.91% year on year to 1.72 million hectares, with the yield per hectare expected to improve to 4.07 MT from 4.04 MT previously.

According to the PSA, as of Nov. 1,  1.10 million hectares or 63.8% of the estimated area planted to rice had been harvested, producing 4.61 MMT.

Of the total standing palay of 961.07 thousand hectares, 45.9% were at the maturing stage, 36.8% vegetative, and 17.3% reproductive.

Corn output is projected at 1.98 MMT in the fourth quarter, up 2.59% from the same quarter last year. The October estimate had been 2 MMT.

The corn harvest area is expected to rise 0.53% to 601.09 thousand hectares, while yield per hectare could improve to 3.30 MT, up 2.17% from a year earlier.

The PSA said as of Nov. 1, 303.32 thousand hectares or 50.5% of the area planted to corn had been harvested, yielding 1.11 MMT.

Of the total standing crop remaining of 544.58 thousand hectares, 46.2% was in the vegetative stage, 27.9% maturing, and 25.9% reproductive. — Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel