The Ethereum price is entering February 2026 at a critical crossroads. After losing nearly 7% in January, ETH is closing the month in clear contrast to its historical trend. January’s median return stands near +32%, yet this year has moved in the opposite direction. February, meanwhile, has delivered median gains of around +15% since 2016.
The last time Ethereum entered February in a similar position was in 2025. That year, weakness extended into a 32%-37% monthly decline. Whether 2026 follows that path or breaks away from it will depend on how the technical structure, on-chain data, and institutional flows interact in the coming weeks.
Ethereum’s February History and a Falling Wedge Set Up a High-Stakes Test
Looking at long-term data helps frame expectations. Since 2016, Ethereum has posted a median February return of about +15%. It is not the strongest month, but it has delivered more gains than losses.
January tells a different story this year.
Instead of following its +32% median gain, ETH is closing January 2026 down roughly 7%. That puts it closer to 2025’s pattern, when early weakness carried into a February decline.
Ethereum History: CryptoRankSponsored
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So Ethereum enters February at a crossroads.
However, not all analysts believe seasonality should be treated as a reliable guide.
The analytics team at B2BINPAY, an all-in-one crypto ecosystem for businesses, cautions against relying too heavily on historical patterns.
They also added that ETH currently lacks immediate growth catalysts
They also point to last year as evidence:
That skepticism is reflected in the current chart structure.
On the two-day timeframe, the ETH price remains inside a falling wedge. A falling wedge forms when the price makes lower highs and lower lows. It often signals weakening selling pressure and the potential for reversal.
In this case, the wedge is wide and volatile. A confirmed breakout would project a move of roughly 60%. That is a maximum target, not a forecast.
Momentum adds another layer.
Between December 17 and January 29, Ethereum is about to print lower lows on price. During the same period, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) held near 37. RSI measures whether buyers or sellers control momentum.
Price Structure: TradingViewWhen the price falls, but the RSI does not, selling pressure is weakening. This creates early bullish divergence.
If the next ETH price candle holds above $2,690 and RSI stabilizes, reversal odds improve as a lower low on price is confirmed. But confirmation is still missing. That makes on-chain data critical.
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On-Chain Data Supports a Rebound, but Conviction Is Fading
On-chain metrics provide the first major validation test. One key indicator is Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). NUPL measures paper profits/losses.
Ethereum’s NUPL currently sits near 0.19, placing it in the “hope–fear” zone.
This level is important historically. In June 2025, NUPL fell near 0.17, while ETH traded around $2,200. Over the following month, the price surged toward $4,800, a gain of more than 110%.
So NUPL aligns with what the wedge and RSI are suggesting. Selling pressure is easing. Unrealized profits are shrinking. That creates room for upside.
But the signal is incomplete. True market bottoms usually occur when NUPL turns negative. In April 2025, it dropped near −0.22, marking full capitulation.
NUPL Still High: GlassnodeToday’s reading remains far above that, which means more selling room remains. This suggests relief rallies, not cycle resets.
HODLer behavior reinforces this mixed picture. The Hodler Net Position Change metric tracks whether long-term investors are accumulating or distributing. Throughout January, this metric stayed positive.
Accumulation peaked on January 18 at roughly 338,700 ETH. By January 29, it had dropped to around 151,600 ETH. That represents a decline of more than 55%. So holders are still buying, but with far less conviction.
Long-Term Investors Buying Less Strongly: GlassnodeThis fits with how B2BINPAY analysts describe the broader market environment.
Taken together, NUPL and holder activity validate the rebound case, but show weakening conviction.
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That shifts attention to the next deciding group: big money!
Whales Are Accumulating, but ETFs Are Still Missing
Large holders are sending a stronger signal than institutional investors.
Data on supply held by whales shows steady January accumulation. At the start of the month, whales controlled about 101.18 million ETH. By month-end, that figure had risen to roughly 105.16 million ETH.
That is an increase of nearly 4 million ETH. This reflects active buying during weakness.
ETH Whales: SantimentWhile price declined from mid-January highs, large wallets continued adding exposure. That supports the ETH rebound case suggested by NUPL and the wedge.
This contrasts sharply with 2025.
At the end of January 2025, whale holdings stood near 105.22 million ETH. By the end of February, that figure had fallen to around 101.96 million ETH. That distribution coincided with Ethereum’s 32% February collapse. Last year, whales sold. This year, they are accumulating.
ETH Whales Were Selling Last Year: SantimentHowever, inconsistent ETF flows tell a more cautious story. Several strong inflow days were followed by major outflows. Late January saw withdrawals exceeding 70,000 ETH equivalents.
ETF Flows: GlassnodeWant more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
This means ETFs have not joined the rebound trade decisively.
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John Murillo, Chief Business Officer of B2BROKER, a global fintech solutions provider for financial institutions, argues that January’s ETF behavior reflects tactical positioning rather than outright exit.
In Murillo’s view:
Murillo warns that if this continues, derivatives may take control of price discovery, a key risk to price:
For now, whales are optimistic. Institutions remain cautious. That combination supports rebounds, but limits sustainability.
Ethereum Price Levels That Will Decide February 2026
NUPL from earlier shows this is not a confirmed bottom. Downside risk remains.
The first critical ETH price support sits near $2,690.
This aligns with the recent two-day support and prior consolidation. A clean close below $2,690 would signal sellers regaining control. That opens downside toward $2,120.
On the upside, Ethereum must reclaim $3,000 first. This is both a psychological and structural barrier. Price has repeatedly failed here since December.
Holding above $3,000 would signal confidence returning.
Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingViewNext resistance stands near $3,340. This level has capped rallies since December 9. A breakout would mark a meaningful shift in the ETH price structure.
Above that, $3,520 becomes critical. A sustained break and hold above $3,520 would confirm momentum recovery and open upside toward $4,030.
Source: https://beincrypto.com/ethereum-price-prediction-february-2026/
