A Bitcoin (BTC) metric tracking the electricity cost to mine one coin is flashing a warning for the bulls, with a so-called “miner exodus” adding to the bearish outlook.
Key takeaways:
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BTC could fall toward the $59,000–$74,000 miner cost zone.
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Big hash rate drops often precede rebounds toward Bitcoin’s energy value at $121,000.
Mining data hints BTC may decline below $60,000
As of January, the estimated average in electricity costs to mine a single Bitcoin is $59,450, while the net production expenditure is about $74,300, according to data from crypto-focused hedge fund Capriole Investments.
BTC/USD daily chart vs. production and electrical cost. Source: Capriole InvestmentsBitcoin was trading at around $82,500 on Friday, still above the miners’ estimated costs.
Many miners can keep operating even if the price declines below the average cost. The market has room to fall toward the $74,300–$59,450 zone before they feel real pain, according to Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments.
“This has expanded the potential range for near-term downside,” he said, further citing an ongoing “Bitcoin miner exodus” behind the bearish outlook.
Related: Bitcoin loses crucial $84K support: How low can BTC price go?
Bitcoin’s hash rate dropped to mid-2025 levels at the end of January, with some analysts speculating that BTC miners reallocated their resources to power AI operations instead. In contrast, others blamed the US winter storm for the drop in BTC hash rates.
Bitcoin total hash rate (TH/s). Source: Blockchain.comHash rate dips could be bullish for Bitcoin
Bitcoin has seen hash rate drops before and bounced back, according to Jeff Feng, co-founder of Sei Labs.
When some miners shut down, the network lowers mining difficulty over time. That makes it easier and cheaper for the remaining miners to earn BTC, which stabilizes the network.
After China’s 2021 mining ban, for example, the hash rate fell about 50%, and BTC slid from around $64,000 to $29,000. But the price recovered to $69,000 within five months.
BTC/USDT vs. hash rate weekly chart. Source: TradingViewBitcoin’s fair price was around $120,950 as of Friday, according to its energy value, a metric that estimates Bitcoin’s fair value based on the network’s energy and production inputs.
Historically, BTC climbs back toward its energy value after a prolonged downtrend.
BTC/USD vs. energy value daily chart. Source: Capriole InvestmentsFor Bitcoin, that suggests that the price could bottom around anywhere from $74,300 to $59,450, and any rebound can trigger a mean-reversion move toward the energy value price.
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