XLM Technical Analysis Feb 4

XLM is stuck at the 0.18$ level and positioned near critical supports within a downtrend. Despite RSI at 29.89 being in the oversold region, rejections at resistances could trigger a decline.

Current Price Position and Critical Levels

XLM is trading at the 0.18$ level with a slight 0.23% increase over the last 24 hours, but the overall structure remains dominated by a downtrend. The price continues to stay below EMA20 (0.20$) and the Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, pointing to 0.21$ as resistance. A total of 12 strong levels were detected across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 2 supports/1 resistance on 3D, 1 support/4 resistance confluence on 1W. This multi-timeframe (MTF) alignment increases the strength of the levels. Volume is low at 102.10M$, indicating that big players are waiting for liquidity hunts. The price is in a narrow consolidation between 0.17$-0.18$; the breakout direction will determine the trend.

Support Levels: Buyer Zones

Primary Support

The strongest support level is at 0.1655$ (score: 79/100), prominently appearing as an order block on 1D and 3D timeframes. This level has been tested three times in recent weeks and rejected each time with strong buying volume; for example, it forms a 20% demand zone on the 1W chart. MTF confluence is high: it overlaps with EMA50 (around 0.166$), and has held multiple times in the past as a Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level. Volume profile is concentrated here, a region where institutional buyers accumulate liquidity for stop-loss hunts. A break below this level could lead to a downside target of 0.0941$ (R/R ratio around 1:4).

Secondary Support and Stop Levels

Secondary support at 0.1747$ (score: 68/100) stands out as a short-term supply/demand transition. It is the swing low of the recent decline on the 1D chart and a breaker block on 3D; tested twice and rejected upward, it held even in low-volume tests. It provides confluence with EMA100 (around 0.175$). Invalidation is a close below 0.1655$; if broken, buyer stop-losses will trigger, accelerating toward 0.16$ with a liquidity sweep. This area carries bounce potential with oversold RSI (29.89), but caution is advised due to the bearish trend.

Resistance Levels: Seller Zones

Near-Term Resistances

The near-term first resistance is at 0.1819$ (score: 72/100), just above the current price and a strong resistance node on the 1D timeframe. This level has been rejected four times in recent rallies; sellers enter when tested without volume increase. It aligns with Supertrend resistance (0.21$) and overlaps with daily VWAP. A breakout requires high volume; otherwise, fakeout risk is high. The second resistance is at 0.1888$ (score: 60/100), forming equal highs on 1W and a Fibonacci 0.382 extension.

Main Resistance and Targets

The main resistance at 0.2721$ (score: 60/100) is a long-term target and premium liquidity zone with 3D/1W confluence. It functioned as a major supply block in the past bull market, turning down after five tests with strong selling volume. It perfectly overlaps with EMA200 weekly (around 0.27$). Upside target 0.2393$ (score: 33) is an intermediate target between these resistances; a break would increase momentum. However, in a downtrend, these levels can be used as seller traps, with big players accumulating liquidity for short positions.

Liquidity Map and Big Players

The liquidity map shows dense stop-loss clusters below 0.1655$; this is a pool that smart money will target for a sweep. Above, equal highs between 0.1819$-0.1888$ hold short squeeze liquidity. Big players (institutions) may be accumulating positions in buyer blocks at 0.1747$-0.1655$ during the downtrend; there are traces of quiet buying when volume is low. Imbalances (fair value gaps) on 1W will be filled if price pushes to 0.2721$. Overall, liquidity is downward under the bearish Supertrend; a BTC decline is expected to cause a cascade effect in XLM.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC is in a downtrend at 76,534$ with a -2% decline; XLM has high correlation to BTC (+0.85), and BTC testing supports at 75,666$ and 72,963$ could pressure XLM to 0.1655$. If BTC resistances at 77,817$-81,773$ break, an altcoin rally could follow, targeting 0.1888$ for XLM. BTC Dominance is rising and Supertrend is bearish; caution for altcoins, watch support near 0.00000236$ on the XLM BTC pair.

Trading Plan and Level-Based Strategy

Bearish outlook: Short on rejection at 0.1819$ with stop at 0.1747$, target 0.1655$ (high R/R). Bullish scenario: Long on 0.1819$ breakout + volume, target 0.1888$, invalidation below 0.1747$. Check detailed charts in XLM Spot Analysis and XLM Futures Analysis. This is a level-based outlook; DYOR and risk management are essential (risk 1-2% of position). Wait for MTF confirmation, volume spikes as catalysts.