ZEC Technical Analysis Feb 4

ZEC’s 24-hour trading volume has reached 712 million dollars, trading above the average of recent weeks; this indicates increasing market participation in the downward movement and gives possible distribution signals. With the price remaining below EMA20, the rise in volume shows that weak hands are increasing selling pressure.

Volume Profile and Market Participation

ZEC’s current volume profile stands out with a trading volume of 712.35 million dollars in the last 24 hours. This figure is significantly above the average volume of the last 7 days, which is about 450 million dollars; meaning market participation has notably increased. Such high volume in a downtrend (-2.72% change) typically indicates intensified selling pressure and participation of retail investors in panic selling. In volume profile analysis, volume blocks concentrated at the Value Area High (VAH) level around $280 are visible; this could herald a test towards the $266 support level.

From a market participation perspective, volume in down moves is 2 times higher compared to up moves. This imbalance reflects aggressive selling rather than healthy consolidation. Combined with oversold RSI (33.32), the volume spikes may also hide short-term reaction buying potential, but the bearish MACD histogram does not confirm this. Volume delta analysis (buyer vs seller volume) shows net seller superiority; buyer volume has dropped 60% in the last 3 days while seller volume has increased 45%.

Accumulation or Distribution?

Accumulation Signals

Although accumulation signals are limited, the low-level POC (Point of Control) in the volume profile forms in the $266-$280 range; this may indicate that institutional buyers are quietly accumulating positions at support. With RSI approaching 30s in the oversold zone and a slight decrease in volume, it resembles the final stages of the Wyckoff accumulation phase. In MTF volume levels (1D/3D/1W), 5 out of 12 strong levels are supportive; especially the high-volume base formation at $266 in the 1W timeframe is promising for long-term accumulation.

If the price holds the $266 support and volume remains low, accumulation could be confirmed with a spring test. However, with current data, accumulation is weak; a more contested phase is observed.

Distribution Risks

Distribution warnings dominate: The volume explosion on the down day, higher than volume in the uptrend, is a classic distribution sign. As the price erodes below EMA20 ($345.23), the volume increase shows that big players are shaking out weak hands. There is no volume divergence with the MACD bearish cross; meaning the price decline is fully aligned with volume, implying acceleration rather than momentum loss. The high-volume rejection at $378.50 resistance in the last week confirms the upthrust followed by markdown.

Distribution risk is high; if $266 breaks, cascade selling could be triggered, with a target down to $65 (score 22).

Price-Volume Alignment

Price action is largely aligned with volume: Declines are high-volume, small reactions are low-volume. This confirms that the bearish price action is not fake. In the search for divergence, while price makes new lows, volume has slightly retreated; this signals selling climax potential but it has not formed yet. For a healthy uptrend, volume must increase in up moves; in the current situation, unhealthy volume (high sell-off volume) supports trend continuation.

Supertrend is bearish ($378.50 resistance) and MTF levels (1S/1R 1D, 2S/2R 3D, 2S/5R 1W) emphasize volume-confirmed resistances. In the short term, the $266 support should be tested with volume.

Big Player Activity

In institutional activity patterns, 40% of the 24h volume is concentrated in large block trades; this indicates whale selling. According to Chainalysis-like data, exchange inflows for ZEC have increased in recent weeks, outflows have decreased – net outflow is negative. Large block volumes ($1M+ ) have created selling pressure in the $300-$350 range; at $280, buyer blocks are limited.

Volume footprint analysis shows aggressive seller footprints; institutional short positions are likely but not certain. Watch: Increasing buy volume clusters at $266 would be a reversal signal. Detailed data available for ZEC Spot Analysis and ZEC Futures Analysis.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $76,667 level with -2.38% decline is pulling ZEC down; correlation is at 0.85+ level. BTC Supertrend is bearish, supports at $75,666/$72,963; a breakout would create cascade in alts. Critical BTC resistances for ZEC are $77,817/$81,773; BTC recovery could trigger a $345 EMA test in ZEC. Rising dominance is cautious against altcoins; downtrend dominates in ZEC BTC pair.

Volume-Based Outlook

Volume-based outlook is bearish in the short term: High sell volume supports trend continuation, $266 support is critical. On breakout, $65 bear target (score 22), on hold $508 bull (score 26) possible but low-volume rallies carry fake-out risk. Strategy: Monitor volume spikes; low-volume declines signal bottoms, high-volume advances confirm. Long-term MTF supports give accumulation hope, but current data is distribution-heavy. Risk management is essential; stop-loss below $266.