ONDO Technical Analysis Feb 4

Although ONDO signals in the oversold region with RSI at 30.08, momentum weakness prevails due to the MACD’s negative histogram and its position below EMA20. Bitcoin’s downtrend creates additional pressure on altcoins, while the volume decline confirms the trend strength.

Trend Status and Momentum Analysis

ONDO’s current price is at the 0.28 dollar level and has fallen by 2.18% in the last 24 hours, with the daily range limited between 0.27-0.30 dollars. The overall trend direction is downward, and momentum indicators clearly reflect this weakness. The RSI 14 period has dropped to 30.08, pointing to the oversold region, but this level alone is not sufficient for a trend reversal; as the MACD histogram is expanding in the negative zone, strengthening bearish momentum. The EMA ribbon structure also exhibits a bearish arrangement, with the price remaining below EMA20 (0.32 dollars). Volume is trending low at 130.75 million dollars compared to previous days, indicating that while selling pressure has eased, buyers have not yet entered. In multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence, 10 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1 support/2 resistances on 3D, 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W. This structure points to a short-term squeeze between the main 0.2560 dollar support and 0.3045 dollar resistance. The Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal, emphasizing the 0.36 dollar resistance. Overall momentum maintains downtrend dominance, while the oversold RSI leaves the door open for a potential reaction buy, but lacks volume confirmation.

RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?

RSI Divergence Analysis

The RSI 14 period is currently at 30.08 and positioned just below the classic oversold region of 30. In recent periods, while the price made new lows (0.27 dollars), a slight bullish divergence is observed on the RSI: At the point where the price dropped to 0.27, the RSI formed a higher bottom than the previous low (around 28). This hidden bullish divergence signals weakening momentum and lays the groundwork for a potential corrective rally. However, on the 1W timeframe, the RSI is still trading below 40, confirming the overall downtrend. The divergence strength is at a medium level; if the price does not bounce from the 0.2745 support, a new drop toward RSI 20 could lead to bearish continuation. On the daily chart, volume increase is required for the RSI to break above the 50 line; otherwise, the sell signal strengthens.

Overbought/Oversold Regions

The oversold region (below 30) brings buy opportunities for ONDO to the agenda, but this level has been tested multiple times without breaking. Historically, ONDO has shown an average recovery of 15-20% from the RSI 25-30 range, but the current bearish EMA position may limit this reaction. Above, the 50 level is the neutral line, and 70 is the overbought threshold to monitor. In momentum confluence, with RSI oversold and Stochastic at similar low levels (around 15), this increases short-term bounce potential, but trend strength is weak.

MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics

The MACD indicator reinforces bearish momentum with a negative histogram following a bearish crossover. The signal line remains below the MACD line, and histogram bars have expanded over the last 3 days, increasing selling pressure. On the daily chart, the histogram deepening to -0.015 shows momentum favoring the downtrend. There is slight contraction on the 4-hour chart, which could signal short-term weakening, but the price needs to break above the 0.3045 resistance for a signal line crossover. A bearish structure also dominates the weekly MACD, with staying below the zero line preserving the long-term sell signal. When confirmed by volume, negative histogram expansion highlights the 0.2560 support as a downside target. No positive divergence exists, so MACD gives a sell signal.

EMA Systems and Trend Strength

Short-Term EMAs

With the price below EMA20 (0.32 dollars), the short-term trend is bearish. The narrowing ribbon between EMA10 and EMA20 reflects momentum loss. Selling was triggered by the price rejection at EMA20, and this dynamic measures trend strength downward. The short-term strength index is weak; the EMA12-20 band will act as resistance until buyers enter.

Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports

EMA50 (0.35 dollars) and EMA200 (0.42 dollars) are positioned as distant supports; the price approaching these levels will deepen the downtrend. The ribbon structure is downward-sloping, with medium-term trend strength low. On the 1W chart, EMA100 support around 0.30 could be tested, requiring volume for a bounce. EMA dynamics confirm that momentum is bearish in the long term.

Bitcoin Correlation

Bitcoin is showing a downtrend at the 76,118 dollar level with a 2.85% drop, and the Supertrend bearish signal is a warning for altcoins. ONDO shows high correlation with BTC (0.85+); if BTC breaks the 75,472 support, a sharp drop to 0.2560 is expected in ONDO. Conversely, if BTC breaks above the 77,795 resistance, a reaction buy could be triggered in ONDO’s spot and futures markets. Rising BTC dominance could accelerate altcoin selling, and current BTC supports (72,930, 61,211) should be monitored critically.

Momentum Outcome and Expectations

In the synthesis of momentum indicators, although RSI oversold divergence carries bullish potential, MACD negative histogram, price below EMA, and low volume maintain bearish superiority. Short-term consolidation between 0.2745-0.3045, with the breakout direction being decisive. Bullish target of 0.4493 is low probability, while bearish 0.1183 is more realistic. News like MetaMask-ONDO integration (tokenized US stocks portfolio) could support sentiment, but momentum is weak. If volume increase and BTC recovery create confluence, the reversal signal strengthens; otherwise, the downtrend continues. Watch: RSI 50 breakout, MACD zero crossover.