Tesla (TSLA) Stock Climbs as Musk Projects Robotaxi Fleet to Double Monthly

TLDR

• Tesla stock closed up 1.5% Monday at $417.32 after rising 3.5% Friday, potentially forming a bottom near $390 support level
• CEO Elon Musk projected robotaxi fleet could double monthly and cover quarter to half of U.S. by year-end, though timeline skepticism remains
• Tesla VP Raj Jegannathan departed after 13 years, most recently overseeing IT, AI infrastructure and information security
• Company plans to end Model S and X production to focus on Optimus robot manufacturing with record $20 billion capital spending for 2026
• Only 40% of analysts rate Tesla as Buy compared to 55% S&P 500 average, with stock trading at over 200 times forward earnings

Tesla stock climbed 1.5% Monday to close at $417.32, building on Friday’s 3.5% gain. The stock appears to have found support near $390, a level last seen in November.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

The rally comes after Tesla shares dropped nearly 8% earlier in the week. Since reporting fourth-quarter earnings on January 28, the stock has fallen about 5%.

CEO Elon Musk provided an update on Tesla’s robotaxi fleet during the earnings call. He said there are over 500 robotaxis operating in Austin and San Francisco carrying paid customers.

Musk projected the fleet could double each month. He expects robotaxis to operate in a quarter to half of the United States by year-end, pending regulatory approval.

Robotaxi Reality Check

The robotaxi claims face scrutiny. An independent tracking project reported only about four of Tesla’s 58 Austin robotaxis operate fully unsupervised, despite Musk’s statements.

Musk had previously promised 1 million robotaxis by 2020 in a 2019 prediction. He recently tweeted that production for robotaxis and Optimus robots would be “agonizingly slow.”

Media reports suggest crash rates among the robotaxi fleet could present challenges. Tesla doesn’t expect to start cybercab production until April.

The company plans to wind down Model S and X production to make room for Optimus manufacturing. Tesla announced record capital spending of $20 billion for 2026.

Some Wall Street analysts don’t expect Tesla to generate free cash flow in 2026 or 2027. The stock trades at over 200 times forward earnings.

Executive Shakeup

Vice President Raj Jegannathan announced his departure Monday after 13 years at Tesla. He most recently oversaw IT, AI infrastructure, business apps and information security.

Jegannathan led Tesla’s North American sales team last summer after Troy Jones was dismissed. Tesla’s 2025 revenue dropped 3%, marking its first annual decline on record.

The company faces pressure to revitalize EV sales. Its brand reputation has suffered from an aging vehicle lineup and consumer backlash against Musk’s political involvement.

Only 40% of analysts covering Tesla rate shares as Buy. The average Buy rating for S&P 500 stocks is 55%.

Since earnings, the average analyst target price has moved less than $5 to $420 per share. SpaceX announced it would focus on moon missions in 2026 instead of Mars.

Musk had previously called the moon a “distraction” earlier this year. Tesla owns a small stake in SpaceX after the companies became connected through xAI investments.

The stock found support at the $390 level where it traded in November. If this level holds, it could provide a foundation for further gains.

Investors appear to be waiting for major developments like robotaxi expansion to new cities or the unveiling of the third-generation Optimus robot. The stock closed Monday at $417.32 while the S&P 500 rose 0.5%.

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