👨🏿‍🚀TechCabal Daily – Access denied in South Africa

Good morning.

North Africa is locking in on AI: the AI sector in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region attracted $858 million in funding in 2025, which goes to show just how much AI is embedded in how venture capital is moving across the continent.

If you haven’t seen TechCabal’s Headlines yet, you should watch the show where we break down all the headlines in the African tech ecosystem of the week. You can watch Headlines here.

Senegal’s Petrosen, the state-owned oil company, has announced a $100 million onshore exploration campaign for 2026. This marks the first time in decades that the West African nation has sought onshore oil, following the massive offshore successes of the Sangomar project and the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) field.

A jump start: The $100 million investment is designed to move Petrosen from a passive partner to an active explorer, following a record year for Senegal’s energy sector: BP loaded its first LNG cargo from the GTA project in 2025, while Woodside Energy began pumping oil in 2024. 

A continental trend: Petrosen joins a growing club of National Oil Companies (NOCs) across the continent, including those in Nigeria (NNPC), Angola (Sonangol), and Equatorial Guinea, that are tired of sitting on the sidelines. These countries are increasingly taking on operator and explorer roles to capture more value from their natural resources. However, the challenge remains the “skill and bill” gap, developing the technical expertise and deep pockets required to compete with the likes of Exxon and Shell.

Why it matters: If Petrosen finds a major onshore basin by the end of the year, it could significantly lower local energy costs and provide a more predictable revenue stream for the government. It also sets a precedent for how African nations can leverage offshore windfalls to fund riskier, domestic onshore ventures.

In December 2024, Access Bank, Nigeria’s largest bank by assets, offered to acquireSouth Africa’s Bidvest Bank for R2.8 billion ($159 million). If the deal had gone through, it would have allowed the lender to scale through South Africa’s tight regulations and enter the country’s growing retail and corporate banking sector.

But the only thing the deal did was hit a wall: Yesterday, the bank’s parent company confirmed that the transaction was terminated because key conditions (mostly regulatory) were not met by the January 26, 2026, deadline. In a filing with the Nigerian Exchange, Access Holdings noted that its interest in South Africa hasn’t changed, even as this deal has.

Why did it actually fall through? Neither side is saying exactly which approvals failed, and that silence is telling. Cross-border bank deals require sign-off from multiple regulators, including central banks, prudential authorities, and competition regulators in both countries. Access says the issue was timing and complexity, suggesting that approvals didn’t land before the deadline.

What happens to Bidvest now? Bidvest Group says it is relaunching the disposal process, meaning it is back on the market. The failed Access deal is treated as closed, and Bidvest will now restart the process of finding a new buyer, who, this time, would need better regulatory timing to close the deal.

As part of its proposed acquisition of a 66% stake in Kenya’s NCBA Group, South Africa’s fourth-largest bank by assets, Nedbank, has promised to retain all current NCBA employees.

The deal in plain terms: Announced in January, Nedbank’s offer targets a controlling stake in NCBA through a cash-and-stock transaction valued at $855.5 million. The offer values NCBA at $7.6 billion, with shareholders receiving 80% in Nedbank shares and 20% in cash. In this deal, NCBA keeps its brand, its management, and its board. And now, thanks to Nedbank’s pinky promise, it’ll keep its staff too.

Why the job guarantee matters: In Kenya, banking mergers and acquisitions have a reputation problem. Past deals often led to branch closures and consolidations in the name of efficiency. For instance, after Nigeria’s Access Bank announced its interest in the acquisition of National Bank of Kenya Limited (NBK) in March 2024, the jobs of 270 bank staff were on the line. 

Nedbank has now offered public assurance meant to calm nerves in a region where bank takeovers often come with layoffs. For NCBA’s staff, the promise matters because it shifts the tone of the deal from consolidation to continuity. Whether that assurance survives integration will be closely watched by a region where banking deals have long carried human consequences.

E-commerce giant Jumia reported a 13% jump in revenue to $188.9 million for the full year 2025. Even more impressive was its Gross Merchandise Value (GMV), which climbed 14% to$818.6 million, proving that despite high inflation, Africans are still clicking “add to cart.”

While Jumia operates across several countries, the real story is in Nigeria. In Q4 2025 alone, orders in Nigeria surged by33%, and GMV jumped a massive 50%. This suggests that Jumia’s decision to exit South Africa and Tunisia in late 2024 was the right move. The company has been able to double down on its strongest market, where it has managed to stay relevant even as global competitors like DHL’s e-commerce wing have scaled back.

Jumia isn’t profitable yet, but it’s getting closer. The operating loss narrowed to $63.2 million, and the loss before income tax fell by 38% compared to the previous year. CEO Francis Dufay is now aiming for a very specific finish line: achieving breakeven on an adjusted EBITDA basis by Q4 2026, with full-year profitability targeted for 2027. To get there, the company is pivoting away from high-volume but low-margin digital services (like airtime top-ups) to focus on physical goods.

Why it matters: Jumia’s survival has often been questioned, but these results show a leaner, more disciplined operator. By exiting underperforming markets and focusing on the “pipes and plumbing” of logistics in secondary cities, Jumia is proving it can navigate the currency devaluations that have historically hammered its bottom line. 

Written by: Zia Yusuf and Opeyemi Kareem

Edited by: Ganiu Oloruntade