TON Price Prediction: Testing $1.54 Resistance with Neutral Momentum in February 2026

Lawrence Jengar Feb 15, 2026 09:28

Toncoin trades at $1.48 with RSI at 51.83 showing neutral momentum. Technical analysis suggests $1.54 resistance test possible, with support holding at $1.44.

TON Price Prediction Summary

• Short-term target (1 week): $1.51-$1.54 • Medium-term forecast (1 month): $1.44-$1.58 range
• Bullish breakout level: $1.54 • Critical support: $1.44

What Crypto Analysts Are Saying About Toncoin

While specific analyst predictions are limited for the current timeframe, recent forecasts from late 2025 and early 2026 showed mixed sentiment for Toncoin. According to on-chain data and technical indicators, TON has been consolidating within a defined range, suggesting uncertainty about its next directional move.

Previous analysis from December 2025 indicated potential for Toncoin to reach the $1.91-$2.15 range, citing bullish momentum and positive MACD indicators. However, current technical conditions show a more neutral stance as the market enters February 2026.

TON Technical Analysis Breakdown

Toncoin's current technical picture presents a mixed but predominantly neutral outlook. Trading at $1.48, TON sits above its short-term moving averages with the 7-day SMA at $1.41 and 20-day SMA also at $1.41, indicating recent upward momentum from lower levels.

The RSI reading of 51.83 places Toncoin firmly in neutral territory, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. This neutral RSI provides room for movement in either direction without immediate reversal pressure.

The MACD analysis reveals interesting dynamics with both the MACD line and signal line at -0.0342, while the histogram reads exactly 0.0000. This configuration suggests bearish momentum is potentially stalling, with the possibility of a bullish crossover if buying pressure increases.

Bollinger Bands analysis shows TON trading at 0.76 of the band width, positioning it in the upper portion of the range between $1.27 (lower band) and $1.55 (upper band). The middle band at $1.41 has been successfully reclaimed as support.

The daily ATR of $0.10 indicates moderate volatility, providing reasonable trading opportunities without excessive risk for position management.

Toncoin Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case

Bullish Scenario

In the bullish case, TON price prediction suggests an initial test of immediate resistance at $1.51, followed by a potential breakout above the strong resistance level at $1.54. A successful break above $1.54 could open the path toward the Bollinger Band upper limit at $1.55.

Technical confirmation for this Toncoin forecast would require RSI breaking above 60, indicating strengthening momentum, and MACD histogram turning positive with a bullish crossover. The 24-hour trading volume of $5.53 million would need to increase significantly to support such a breakout.

Extended targets in a strong bullish scenario could see TON challenging the 50-day moving average at $1.58, representing approximately 6.8% upside from current levels.

Bearish Scenario

The bearish case for this TON price prediction centers on failure to break above the $1.51-$1.54 resistance zone. A rejection from these levels could lead to a retest of immediate support at $1.46, followed by strong support at $1.44.

Should the $1.44 level fail to hold, the next significant support lies at the Bollinger Band lower boundary of $1.27, representing a potential 14% decline from current levels. The negative MACD reading of -0.0342 supports this bearish scenario if momentum continues to deteriorate.

Risk factors include the significant gap between current price and the 200-day moving average at $2.23, indicating longer-term bearish pressure that could influence shorter-term movements.

Should You Buy TON? Entry Strategy

Based on current technical analysis, the optimal entry strategy for TON involves waiting for clear directional confirmation. Conservative buyers should consider entering on a successful break and close above $1.54 with increased volume, targeting the $1.58 resistance level.

For more aggressive traders, a current entry around $1.48 could be justified with a tight stop-loss below $1.44 to limit downside risk. This approach offers a favorable risk-reward ratio if the bullish scenario materializes.

The Toncoin forecast suggests using a dollar-cost averaging approach for longer-term positions, as the neutral RSI and consolidating price action indicate potential for range-bound trading in the near term.

Risk management should include position sizing of no more than 2-3% of portfolio value given the cryptocurrency's volatility, with stop-losses set at the $1.44 support level to preserve capital.

Conclusion

This TON price prediction analysis reveals a cryptocurrency at a technical crossroads, with neutral momentum indicators suggesting the next major move could be decisive. The most probable scenario involves testing the $1.54 resistance level within the next week, with a breakout potentially targeting $1.58.

However, traders should remain cautious given the mixed technical signals and the significant distance from longer-term moving averages. The Toncoin forecast carries moderate confidence given current market conditions, with success dependent on volume confirmation and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment.

Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are inherently speculative and subject to high volatility. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

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