A former CIA operative claims regime change in Iran is tougher than the US perceives. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 are at 13.5% YES, down from 20% a week ago.
The statement has added weight to the bearish sentiment on regime change. Despite military strikes and regional instability, the entrenched Iranian regime shows institutional resilience. The market for June 30 decreased in odds from 20% last week to 13.5% now, indicating skepticism about imminent change.
Traders are gauging the entrenched power structures, including the IRGC and clerical establishment, as bolstering the regime’s durability. The recent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei has not destabilized the government. The largest price move was a modest 1-point spike yesterday, underscoring a relatively stable outlook.
From a trading perspective, the market’s daily volume stands at $59,602 in actual USDC, with a hefty $195,747 needed to shift prices by 5 percentage points. This suggests the market has substantial depth, making it more resistant to sudden swings from small trades.
The former CIA operative’s insights highlight the complexities involved in potential regime change. At 13.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30 — a 7.4x return. For this bet to be worthwhile, you’d need to believe in an internal fracture or unforeseen upheaval within the next 88 days.
Keep an eye on any IRGC leadership changes, unexpected Assembly of Experts activity, or a shift in US official rhetoric. These could signal a shift in market sentiment.
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Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/odds-of-iranian-regime-change-by-june-30-drop-to-135-from-20-a-week-ago/
