Gemini prediction markets secure CFTC license for US launch

After years of regulatory wrangling, the push into Gemini prediction markets signals a new phase for the exchange’s U.S. strategy and product expansion.

CFTC grants Designated Contract Market license to Gemini Titan

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has granted a CFTC Designated Contract Market license to Gemini Titan, an affiliate of Gemini Space Station, Inc., clearing the firm to launch regulated prediction markets in the United States. Moreover, the approval allows Gemini to offer event contracts directly to American customers.

He credited the Trump administration for “ending the Biden administration’s war on crypto” after the CFTC sign-off.

Rising competition with Kalshi and Polymarket

With this decision, Gemini is set to compete head-to-head with existing prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket. However, Polymarket only recently received CFTC clearance last month to resume U.S. operations, following a forced move offshore in 2022.

The license comes amid growing regulatory acceptance of regulated prediction markets, which have seen a sharp rise in popularity in 2024. That said, oversight remains a key focus as authorities balance innovation with investor protection.

How Gemini prediction markets will work for U.S. users

Gemini customers will soon be able to trade event contracts via the exchange‘s web interface using existing USD balances, with mobile app support planned for a later rollout. Moreover, the company said sample markets could include questions such as whether Bitcoin will end the year above $200,000 or whether specific regulatory outcomes will materialize.

In that context, the launch of gemini prediction markets could broaden access to on-chain sentiment tools for both retail and institutional participants, while keeping activity within a fully supervised U.S. framework.

Broader push into crypto derivatives listings

Beyond event contracts, Gemini outlined plans to pursue U.S. crypto derivatives listings, including futures, options, and perpetual contracts. These products have seen significant traction in Asian markets but remain largely unavailable to U.S. traders because of regulatory constraints.

“Prediction markets have the potential to be as big or bigger than traditional capital markets. Acting Chairman Pham understands this vision and its importance,” Cameron Winklevoss, Gemini’s President, said in the statement. Furthermore, the firm views derivatives as a natural extension of its core exchange business.

Caroline Pham’s stance and industry outreach

The CFTC under Acting Chairman Caroline Pham has adopted a more permissive approach toward prediction venues compared to prior leadership. This evolving Caroline Pham stance is reflected in the agency’s efforts to bring industry players into structured dialogue.

Pham recently announced the first CEO Innovation Council, which includes senior executives from Polymarket, Kalshi, Nasdaq, CME Group, and Tyler Winklevoss. However, the council is expected to debate risk management, market integrity, and consumer safeguards as these products scale.

Market sentiment and Gemini stock reaction

Investor sentiment toward this sector already appears constructive. In Myriad Markets, 80% of users identify prediction markets as the crypto segment with the greatest upside potential. Moreover, the data underscores growing interest in event-driven trading instruments.

Following the CFTC approval, Gemini‘s stock spiked about 13.7% in after-hours trading, although it remains down roughly 70% from its opening IPO price. That said, the new Gemini Titan license could mark a turning point if derivatives expansion and event markets attract sustained volume.

Overall, the CFTC move positions Gemini alongside Kalshi and Polymarket in a rapidly maturing prediction ecosystem, while opening the door to a wider suite of U.S.-regulated crypto derivatives.