Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

925 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Where do prediction markets stand legally?

Where do prediction markets stand legally?

The post Where do prediction markets stand legally? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction markets are moving from the fringe into the mainstream. They have been satirized on South Park, made founders wealthy through venture funding, and even triggered controversy after a Nobel Prize leak. The two leaders in the space are Kalshi, a regulated U.S. exchange that settles contracts in dollars, and Polymarket, a decentralized crypto-based platform built on Polygon. Together they saw record trading volume of $1.44 billion in September, with Kalshi pulling ahead at 60% share. As their visibility grows, the spotlight is turning to a key issue: are prediction markets legal, and where? To understand the legal debate, it’s worth first breaking down how prediction markets work. What are prediction markets? Simply put, a prediction market is a marketplace for bets on future events such as election outcomes, sports, weather patterns, or financial trends. People buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of real-world events. The prices shift dynamically with collective belief, and every trade is an incentive-driven bet on the future. For instance, take a market for “Will Team A win football match?” On the platform, each event works like a tug-of-war between two sides — YES and NO — whose combined value always equals $1. If you believe Team A will win, you buy the YES contract; if you believe the opposite, you pick NO. As traders react to new data, rumors, or intuition, the prices shift in real time. So, if a contract is trading at $0.80, it indicates that the market thinks the event has an 80% chance of occurring. You earn a $1 payout for your stake if your prediction comes true. Some prediction markets are off-chain, centralized, and regulated like Kalshi. Others are decentralized and run on blockchain, like Polymarket, giving them more flexibility but less regulatory control. So why do they matter?…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Roger Ver Could Avoid Jail Under Deferred Prosecution Deal to Pay $48 Million in Bitcoin Taxes

Roger Ver Could Avoid Jail Under Deferred Prosecution Deal to Pay $48 Million in Bitcoin Taxes

The post Roger Ver Could Avoid Jail Under Deferred Prosecution Deal to Pay $48 Million in Bitcoin Taxes appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup 💹 Trade with pro tools Fast execution, robust charts, clean risk controls. 👉 Open account → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup 🚀 Smooth orders, clear control Advanced order types and market depth in one view. 👉 Create account → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup 📈 Clarity in volatile markets Plan entries & exits, manage positions with discipline. 👉 Sign up → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup ⚡ Speed, depth, reliability Execute confidently when timing matters. 👉 Open account → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup 🧭 A focused workflow for traders Alerts, watchlists, and a repeatable process. 👉 Get started → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup ✅ Data‑driven decisions Focus on process—not noise. 👉 Sign up → Roger Ver DOJ settlement resolves federal tax charges through a deferred prosecution agreement requiring a $48 million payment, avoiding prison if conditions are met. The deal addresses alleged non-reporting of crypto assets and follows arrest, extradition proceedings in Spain, and related lobbying disclosures. $48 million payment required to settle federal tax charges Deferred prosecution agreement avoids immediate jail time if terms are satisfied and payments are completed DOJ alleges 131,000 BTC holdings in 2014 and notes ties to political figures and lobbying expenditures Roger Ver DOJ settlement: Deferred prosecution requires $48 million tax payment to resolve federal charges without prison. Read COINOTAG’s summary; next steps. By COINOTAG — Published: October 14, 2025 · Updated: October 14, 2025 COINOTAG recommends • Professional traders group 💎 Join a professional trading community Work with senior traders, research‑backed setups, and risk‑first frameworks. 👉 Join the group → COINOTAG recommends • Professional traders group 📊 Transparent performance, real process Spot strategies with documented months of triple‑digit runs during strong trends; futures plans use defined R:R and sizing. 👉 Get access → COINOTAG recommends •…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood looks for acquisition opportunities to boost its prediction markets offering

Robinhood looks for acquisition opportunities to boost its prediction markets offering

The post Robinhood looks for acquisition opportunities to boost its prediction markets offering appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Takeaways Robinhood is open to potential acquisitions or partnerships to expand its prediction markets business. The goal is to expand Robinhood’s product suite and strengthen engagement with retail users. Robinhood, a retail trading platform, is exploring potential acquisitions to expand its presence in prediction markets, where users can bet on real-world events. The partnership discussions come as Robinhood seeks to build on its retail-first approach in the growing prediction markets sector. Robinhood executives have expressed openness to acquisitions or deals in this space. Robinhood recently collaborated with Kalshi to launch a prediction markets hub, enabling users to engage in event-based contracts directly within its app. The integration allows users to participate in betting on outcomes across categories including politics and sports. Prediction markets are gaining traction as platforms integrate them to enhance user engagement with real-world outcomes. Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/robinhood-opendeal-prediction-markets-collaboration/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Norway Probes Nobel Peace Prize Bets on Polymarket

Norway Probes Nobel Peace Prize Bets on Polymarket

The post Norway Probes Nobel Peace Prize Bets on Polymarket appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The probe mainly centers on blockchain-based platform Polymarket, where one user reportedly made more than $30,000 after wagering on Machado’s victory. This quickly raised suspicions of leaked information. The investigation comes just as Polymarket and rival Kalshi surged in popularity and valuation after securing $2 billion and $300 million in funding respectively. Backed by the Intercontinental Exchange and now valued at $9 billion, Polymarket is expanding into the US after more regulatory clarity and CFTC approval. With over $1.4 billion in combined monthly trading volume, prediction markets are quickly changing from crypto experiments into powerful financial ecosystems. Nobel Bets Under Investigation Norwegian officials reportedly launched an investigation into potential espionage related to bets placed on prediction markets ahead of the announcement of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, María Corina Machado. According to a Bloomberg report, the Norwegian Nobel Institute, which assists the Nobel Committee in the selection process, began looking into whether confidential information about the winner was leaked and used for profit on the blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket. Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the institute, confirmed that authorities are investigating if someone “managed to steal information and made a lot of money from it.” Data from Polymarket showed that a user under the handle “dirtycup” earned over $30,000 after wagering roughly $70,000 on Machado’s victory. Bloomberg also reported that three accounts placing similar bets made a combined profit of around $90,000, which raised suspicions of insider access.  Nobel Peace Prize Winner odds (Source: Polymarket) Machado is a Venezuelan opposition leader and human rights advocate, and was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her work promoting democracy in Venezuela. She has also been vocal about Bitcoin’s role in providing Venezuelans with financial freedom, and called it “a lifeline” amid the nation’s severe inflation and economic instability. María Corina Machado…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
How Polymarket and Kalshi Are Turning Bets Into Billions

How Polymarket and Kalshi Are Turning Bets Into Billions

The post How Polymarket and Kalshi Are Turning Bets Into Billions appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Fintech The idea that people can trade on the future – from elections to sports scores – has officially gone mainstream. Two of the world’s biggest prediction platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, just proved it by pulling in multi-billion-dollar backing and rewriting what the next generation of speculation looks like. The Numbers Behind the Mania The surge began when Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), parent of the New York Stock Exchange, quietly led a $2 billion investment into Polymarket, valuing it at a staggering $9 billion. Days later, Kalshi announced a $300 million raise that pushed its own valuation to $5 billion – signaling a market segment no longer confined to crypto’s fringes. Polymarket’s founder, Shayne Coplan, became one of the youngest billionaires in fintech history after the raise – a symbol of just how fast the industry has evolved since the first blockchain-based betting markets appeared a few years ago. Two Paths, One Destination While the companies share the same goal – turning opinions into tradable assets – their philosophies couldn’t be more different. Kalshi operates entirely within the U.S. regulatory perimeter, offering markets through a traditional clearinghouse model that appeals to retail traders on platforms like Robinhood, which recently integrated Kalshi’s markets into its app. Polymarket, in contrast, remains rooted in crypto, running fully onchain where every market and position can be audited on the blockchain. Transparency and decentralization are its calling cards. Their rivalry has quietly become one of the most intriguing duels in financial tech. Kalshi recently flipped the leaderboard, grabbing about 60% of total trading share in September. Yet both platforms hit record volumes, generating more than $1.4 billion in combined activity – proof that the prediction market sector is expanding fast enough for both to win. Speculation Goes Mainstream Once dismissed as internet novelty, prediction markets are…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Pyth Network collaborates with Kalshi for real-time prediction market data

Pyth Network collaborates with Kalshi for real-time prediction market data

The post Pyth Network collaborates with Kalshi for real-time prediction market data appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Takeaways Pyth Network, a major blockchain oracle, has partnered with Kalshi, a regulated prediction market platform. The partnership brings Kalshi’s event market data to Pyth’s oracle network for onchain distribution. Pyth Network, a prominent oracle network specializing in delivering real-time financial data feeds from institutional sources to blockchain ecosystems, has partnered with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform, to distribute regulated prediction market data onchain for developers, institutions, and DeFi protocols. The collaboration aims to integrate Kalshi’s regulated prediction market data into Pyth’s oracle network, enabling onchain trading and analytics for political and economic events with enhanced accuracy and speed. Pyth Network recently expanded its real-time data offerings by launching continuous US equity price feeds directly to blockchain networks, enhancing accessibility for decentralized applications. Kalshi has been advancing prediction market innovation through strategic partnerships, including a recent collaboration with TrendSpider to integrate prediction market data into analytical platforms for broader access to event-based trading insights. Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/pyth-network-collaborates-kalshi-prediction-market-data/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Polymarket, Kashi steal the spotlight

Polymarket, Kashi steal the spotlight

The post Polymarket, Kashi steal the spotlight appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Crypto investors infused fresh capital into innovative blockchain ventures this week, despite market volatility keeping traders on edge. Summary Crypto funding reached $3.19B across 20 projects in the week of Oct. 5-11, 2025. Polymarket led with a $2B raise at a $9B valuation backed by ICE investment. Kalshi secured $300M with backing from Sequoia, AI6Z, and Paradigm investors. Polymarket and Kashi emerged as standout deals from Oct. 5-11, signaling growing institutional interest in decentralized prediction markets. Some 20 companies secured nearly $3.2 billion in crypto funding, including those that specialize in derivatives, asset management, and even Bitcoin-backed life insurance. Here’s a breakdown of this week’s top announcements, according to Crypto Fundraising data: Polymarket Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) invested $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing the decentralized prediction-market platform at $8 billion pre-investment. It also gained exclusive global rights to distribute Polymarket’s event-driven probability data to institutional clients. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan called the deal a milestone for bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream. The investment follows Polymarket’s return to the U.S. market after overcoming regulatory challenges, including the acquisition of QCX to reestablish domestic operations and the addition of Donald Trump Jr. to its advisory board. We are excited to announce that Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) — the parent company of @NYSE, is making a $2b strategic investment at a $9b post-money valuation. Together, we’re building the next evolution of markets. A special thank you to all those who have supported us… pic.twitter.com/y7Z3koj3IU — Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 7, 2025 Kalshi Kalshi secured $300 million in fresh funding at a $5 billion valuation, doubling its worth since June. The platform now leads global prediction markets with over 60% share and $50 billion in annualized trading volume. Expansion into 140 countries positions Kalshi as a global force amid growing interest in real-world betting. DDC…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Crypto VC Funding: Polymarket dominates with $2b investment, Kalshi raises $300m

Crypto VC Funding: Polymarket dominates with $2b investment, Kalshi raises $300m

Some 20 companies secured nearly $3.2 billion in crypto funding, including one firm that specializes in Bitcoin-backed life insurance.

Author: Crypto.news
Kalshi Starts Global Expansion With New $300M Raise

Kalshi Starts Global Expansion With New $300M Raise

The post Kalshi Starts Global Expansion With New $300M Raise appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. United States-based prediction marketplace Kalshi closed another major funding round to bring its platform to more than 100 countries worldwide. Kalshi completed a Series D funding round of over $300 million led by Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), with participation by Paradigm, the company announced on Friday. The platform is immediately available in over 140 countries, Kalshi said in a statement shared with Cointelegraph, adding that it has now emerged as the “world’s only unified global prediction market and instantly added billions of new potential customers.” The latest $300 million raise came months after Kalshi closed a separate $185 million funding round in June, which was led by Paradigm and also featured Sequoia. $5 billion valuation Kalshi’s Series D funding brought the company’s valuation to $5 billion, up $3 billion from its previous raise in June. In addition to Sequoia, a16z and Paradigm, the new funding round attracted additional investors, including CapitalG, Coinbase Ventures, General Catalyst and Spark Capital. On the heels of a fundraising round valuing Kalshi at $5 billion, the platform also announced its international expansion with an immediate launch in several new markets. “International users can now access the platform via the Kalshi website with an identical product experience to American users,” the company said. 38 countries are restricted Approached by Cointelegraph, Kalshi did not immediately disclose the markets where the platform is expanding, instead referring to a member agreement that lists 38 restricted jurisdictions. Among the restricted countries, the document lists Canada, France, Poland, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, the United Kingdom, Venezuela and others. The list of restricted countries on Kalshi is included in a member agreement. Source: Kalshi “Kalshi has emerged as the leading prediction market platform, and we’re thrilled to back them,” a16z’s Growth Fund partner Alex Immerman said. Related: Kalshi ‘ready to…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Prediction Market Kalshi Valued at $5B

Prediction Market Kalshi Valued at $5B

The post Prediction Market Kalshi Valued at $5B appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Online prediction market Kalshi has raised more than $300 million at a $5 billion valuation as prediction markets move into the financial mainstream, according to a report by the New York Times on Friday. The company will now allow users in over 140 countries to place bets, marking its first major international expansion, the article said. Kalshi projects $50 billion in annualized trading volume this year, up from $300 million last year, and now holds more than 60% of global market share, surpassing rival Polymarket. The funding round was led by major investors including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, CapitalG, and Coinbase Ventures, the New York Times said. Growth has been driven by sports betting, particularly parlays, putting pressure on sportsbooks like DraftKings (DKNG) and FanDuel Group, the report noted. Kalshi has also integrated with platforms like Robinhood (HOOD) and Webull (BULL) to make event trading more accessible. Still, regulatory scrutiny remains a challenge, the article said. After clearing a federal hurdle with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) earlier this year, Kalshi now faces lawsuits from several U.S. states accusing it of skirting sports betting laws. Read more: Massachusetts State Attorney General Alleges Kalshi Violating Sports Gambling Laws Source: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/10/10/kalshi-raises-usd300m-at-usd5b-valuation-expands-prediction-markets-to-140-countries-nyt

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews